Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor Secretary with deep local roots as an L.A. County supervisor, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary and now faces Republican Pedro Antonio Casas in the November general election for this open seat. The district's partisan baseline, including roughly 45 percent Democratic voter registration versus 24 percent Republican, combined with a Cook Political Report Solid Democratic rating and historical voting patterns, underpins the market's strong preference for the Democratic outcome. Recent primary results showed Solis consolidating Democratic support while the Republican advanced with limited opposition. Late national shifts in midterm sentiment, unusually low turnout among Democratic-leaning voters, or an unforeseen development affecting Solis could still narrow the margin in this heavily Democratic district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-38 House Election Winner
CA-38 House Election Winner
$61,372 Vol.
$61,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$61,372 Vol.
$61,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$30,418 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$30,954 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor Secretary with deep local roots as an L.A. County supervisor, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary and now faces Republican Pedro Antonio Casas in the November general election for this open seat. The district's partisan baseline, including roughly 45 percent Democratic voter registration versus 24 percent Republican, combined with a Cook Political Report Solid Democratic rating and historical voting patterns, underpins the market's strong preference for the Democratic outcome. Recent primary results showed Solis consolidating Democratic support while the Republican advanced with limited opposition. Late national shifts in midterm sentiment, unusually low turnout among Democratic-leaning voters, or an unforeseen development affecting Solis could still narrow the margin in this heavily Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$61,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor Secretary with deep local roots as an L.A. County supervisor, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary and now faces Republican Pedro Antonio Casas in the November general election for this open seat. The district's partisan baseline, including roughly 45 percent Democratic voter registration versus 24 percent Republican, combined with a Cook Political Report Solid Democratic rating and historical voting patterns, underpins the market's strong preference for the Democratic outcome. Recent primary results showed Solis consolidating Democratic support while the Republican advanced with limited opposition. Late national shifts in midterm sentiment, unusually low turnout among Democratic-leaning voters, or an unforeseen development affecting Solis could still narrow the margin in this heavily Democratic district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$61,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hilda Solis, a former U.S. representative and Labor Secretary with deep local roots as an L.A. County supervisor, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary and now faces Republican Pedro Antonio Casas in the November general election for this open seat. The district's partisan baseline, including roughly 45 percent Democratic voter registration versus 24 percent Republican, combined with a Cook Political Report Solid Democratic rating and historical voting patterns, underpins the market's strong preference for the Democratic outcome. Recent primary results showed Solis consolidating Democratic support while the Republican advanced with limited opposition. Late national shifts in midterm sentiment, unusually low turnout among Democratic-leaning voters, or an unforeseen development affecting Solis could still narrow the margin in this heavily Democratic district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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