The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s record nine Emmy nominations in its final season after CBS canceled the series in May have solidified it as the clear frontrunner in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category. Traders see the show’s emotional send-off, strong guild and critical recognition, and precedent for honoring retiring late-night programs as key momentum drivers, pushing its implied probability near 86%. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver retains a loyal base from prior scripted-variety wins, while Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Saturday Night Live benefit from consistent output but trail in narrative tailwinds. The Daily Show lags further behind. With final voting wrapped and the Sept. 14 ceremony approaching, the market reflects a strong consensus that Colbert will claim the award before the category’s 90% threshold for multiple winners comes into play.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.3%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.4%
$93,132 Vol.
$93,132 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
7%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
5%
“Saturday Night Live”
3%
“The Daily Show”
2%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 6.9%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” 5.3%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.4%
$93,132 Vol.
$93,132 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$31,402 Vol.
86%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$18,162 Vol.
7%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$22,490 Vol.
5%
“Saturday Night Live”
$10,362 Vol.
3%
“The Daily Show”
$10,716 Vol.
2%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s record nine Emmy nominations in its final season after CBS canceled the series in May have solidified it as the clear frontrunner in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category. Traders see the show’s emotional send-off, strong guild and critical recognition, and precedent for honoring retiring late-night programs as key momentum drivers, pushing its implied probability near 86%. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver retains a loyal base from prior scripted-variety wins, while Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Saturday Night Live benefit from consistent output but trail in narrative tailwinds. The Daily Show lags further behind. With final voting wrapped and the Sept. 14 ceremony approaching, the market reflects a strong consensus that Colbert will claim the award before the category’s 90% threshold for multiple winners comes into play.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$93,132End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s record nine Emmy nominations in its final season after CBS canceled the series in May have solidified it as the clear frontrunner in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category. Traders see the show’s emotional send-off, strong guild and critical recognition, and precedent for honoring retiring late-night programs as key momentum drivers, pushing its implied probability near 86%. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver retains a loyal base from prior scripted-variety wins, while Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Saturday Night Live benefit from consistent output but trail in narrative tailwinds. The Daily Show lags further behind. With final voting wrapped and the Sept. 14 ceremony approaching, the market reflects a strong consensus that Colbert will claim the award before the category’s 90% threshold for multiple winners comes into play.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$93,132End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show with Stephen Colbert’s record nine Emmy nominations in its final season after CBS canceled the series in May have solidified it as the clear frontrunner in the newly unified Outstanding Variety Series category. Traders see the show’s emotional send-off, strong guild and critical recognition, and precedent for honoring retiring late-night programs as key momentum drivers, pushing its implied probability near 86%. Last Week Tonight with John Oliver retains a loyal base from prior scripted-variety wins, while Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Saturday Night Live benefit from consistent output but trail in narrative tailwinds. The Daily Show lags further behind. With final voting wrapped and the Sept. 14 ceremony approaching, the market reflects a strong consensus that Colbert will claim the award before the category’s 90% threshold for multiple winners comes into play.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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