Recent FBI execution of search warrants at Eric Swalwell’s Washington residence and seizure of his electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 16–17 has intensified federal scrutiny under civil rights statutes tied to sexual assault allegations, following his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid multiple accusers. Parallel probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities add layers to the inquiry. With roughly five weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 53.4% for no arrest reflects uncertainty over whether evidence review and charging decisions can conclude that quickly, despite the active momentum signaled by the warrants. Factors tipping the balance include any imminent indictment or public charging announcement, which would shift odds toward yes, versus procedural delays or statements emphasizing the preliminary stage of review, which would reinforce no.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
0% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants at Eric Swalwell’s Washington residence and seizure of his electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 16–17 has intensified federal scrutiny under civil rights statutes tied to sexual assault allegations, following his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid multiple accusers. Parallel probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities add layers to the inquiry. With roughly five weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 53.4% for no arrest reflects uncertainty over whether evidence review and charging decisions can conclude that quickly, despite the active momentum signaled by the warrants. Factors tipping the balance include any imminent indictment or public charging announcement, which would shift odds toward yes, versus procedural delays or statements emphasizing the preliminary stage of review, which would reinforce no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent FBI execution of search warrants at Eric Swalwell’s Washington residence and seizure of his electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 16–17 has intensified federal scrutiny under civil rights statutes tied to sexual assault allegations, following his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid multiple accusers. Parallel probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities add layers to the inquiry. With roughly five weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 53.4% for no arrest reflects uncertainty over whether evidence review and charging decisions can conclude that quickly, despite the active momentum signaled by the warrants. Factors tipping the balance include any imminent indictment or public charging announcement, which would shift odds toward yes, versus procedural delays or statements emphasizing the preliminary stage of review, which would reinforce no.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent FBI execution of search warrants at Eric Swalwell’s Washington residence and seizure of his electronic devices at San Francisco airport on August 16–17 has intensified federal scrutiny under civil rights statutes tied to sexual assault allegations, following his April resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race amid multiple accusers. Parallel probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities add layers to the inquiry. With roughly five weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 53.4% for no arrest reflects uncertainty over whether evidence review and charging decisions can conclude that quickly, despite the active momentum signaled by the warrants. Factors tipping the balance include any imminent indictment or public charging announcement, which would shift odds toward yes, versus procedural delays or statements emphasizing the preliminary stage of review, which would reinforce no.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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