Recent FBI searches of Eric Swalwell’s devices and home in a federal civil rights probe tied to sexual assault allegations, combined with parallel state investigations in Manhattan and Los Angeles, have heightened scrutiny but produced no charges as of late August 2026. Swalwell resigned from Congress and exited the California governor race in April after the allegations emerged, yet prosecutors have not advanced to formal charging despite ongoing device analysis and witness interviews. Federal cases under statutes such as 18 U.S.C. § 242 typically require extended evidence review, inter-agency coordination, and grand jury processes that rarely conclude within a one-month window. Earlier mortgage-fraud referrals and declassified counterintelligence records have not yielded indictments. Traders therefore price a low probability of charges by the September 30 cutoff, reflecting standard investigative timelines rather than any confirmed resolution path.