Recent inflation data, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and mixed payrolls), have driven the 70.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish shifts in June projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and geopolitical factors, support the 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5% combined. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on prediction platforms, prices in a cautious policy stance ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment releases, which could refine rate path expectations amid elevated Treasury yields and above-target inflation readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$933,013 Vol.
$933,013 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$933,013 Vol.
$933,013 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$161,572 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$318,443 Vol.
3%
No change
$171,400 Vol.
71%
25 bps increase
$170,160 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$111,438 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and mixed payrolls), have driven the 70.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish shifts in June projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and geopolitical factors, support the 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5% combined. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on prediction platforms, prices in a cautious policy stance ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment releases, which could refine rate path expectations amid elevated Treasury yields and above-target inflation readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$933,013End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and mixed payrolls), have driven the 70.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish shifts in June projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and geopolitical factors, support the 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5% combined. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on prediction platforms, prices in a cautious policy stance ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment releases, which could refine rate path expectations amid elevated Treasury yields and above-target inflation readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$933,013End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and mixed payrolls), have driven the 70.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish shifts in June projections under Chair Kevin Warsh, reflecting persistent price pressures from energy and geopolitical factors, support the 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike while keeping cut probabilities below 5% combined. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on prediction platforms, prices in a cautious policy stance ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment releases, which could refine rate path expectations amid elevated Treasury yields and above-target inflation readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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