Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks and energy prices amid Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on a potential rate hike. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% since January 2026, including a 9–3 decision at the July 28–29 meeting where three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Solid GDP growth, strong productivity and capital investment, and a stable labor market have reinforced the case for tighter policy among many participants, as reflected in July minutes. Markets now price meaningful odds of a hike by year-end or at upcoming meetings, with the September 15–16 FOMC as the next key catalyst alongside fresh PCE and employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,398,412 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
34%
October Meeting
45%
$2,398,412 Vol.
September Meeting
$935,818 Vol.
34%
October Meeting
$502,594 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks and energy prices amid Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on a potential rate hike. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% since January 2026, including a 9–3 decision at the July 28–29 meeting where three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Solid GDP growth, strong productivity and capital investment, and a stable labor market have reinforced the case for tighter policy among many participants, as reflected in July minutes. Markets now price meaningful odds of a hike by year-end or at upcoming meetings, with the September 15–16 FOMC as the next key catalyst alongside fresh PCE and employment data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,398,412End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks and energy prices amid Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on a potential rate hike. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% since January 2026, including a 9–3 decision at the July 28–29 meeting where three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Solid GDP growth, strong productivity and capital investment, and a stable labor market have reinforced the case for tighter policy among many participants, as reflected in July minutes. Markets now price meaningful odds of a hike by year-end or at upcoming meetings, with the September 15–16 FOMC as the next key catalyst alongside fresh PCE and employment data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,398,412End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by supply shocks and energy prices amid Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on a potential rate hike. The FOMC has held the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% since January 2026, including a 9–3 decision at the July 28–29 meeting where three officials dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Solid GDP growth, strong productivity and capital investment, and a stable labor market have reinforced the case for tighter policy among many participants, as reflected in July minutes. Markets now price meaningful odds of a hike by year-end or at upcoming meetings, with the September 15–16 FOMC as the next key catalyst alongside fresh PCE and employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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