Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd congressional district due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 victory margin exceeding 23 points, and broad institutional support including an endorsement from President Trump. The Republican primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election where she maintains a substantial fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Seth Harp, a radio sports host who prevailed in a fragmented August primary with under 46 percent, faces structural headwinds in this solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Republican odds aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$29,840 Vol.
$29,840 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$29,840 Vol.
$29,840 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$11,666 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$18,174 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd congressional district due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 victory margin exceeding 23 points, and broad institutional support including an endorsement from President Trump. The Republican primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election where she maintains a substantial fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Seth Harp, a radio sports host who prevailed in a fragmented August primary with under 46 percent, faces structural headwinds in this solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Republican odds aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$29,840End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd congressional district due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 victory margin exceeding 23 points, and broad institutional support including an endorsement from President Trump. The Republican primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election where she maintains a substantial fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Seth Harp, a radio sports host who prevailed in a fragmented August primary with under 46 percent, faces structural headwinds in this solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Republican odds aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,840End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack holds a commanding position in Florida's 3rd congressional district due to its R+10 Partisan Voter Index, her 2024 victory margin exceeding 23 points, and broad institutional support including an endorsement from President Trump. The Republican primary was canceled, allowing her to focus resources on the general election where she maintains a substantial fundraising advantage. Democratic nominee Seth Harp, a radio sports host who prevailed in a fragmented August primary with under 46 percent, faces structural headwinds in this solidly Republican seat rated Safe or Solid Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5 percent Republican odds aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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