Florida's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat in northeast Florida, anchored by consistent partisan voting patterns and structural advantages that have produced large GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean advanced unopposed through the August 18 primary, preserving his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination after defeating challengers, but faces an uphill path against the district's underlying voter registration and turnout dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Republican outcome well above 80 percent. No late developments have altered the competitive balance in the brief window since primaries concluded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$26,989 Vol.
$26,989 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
10%
$26,989 Vol.
$26,989 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,654 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$10,335 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat in northeast Florida, anchored by consistent partisan voting patterns and structural advantages that have produced large GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean advanced unopposed through the August 18 primary, preserving his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination after defeating challengers, but faces an uphill path against the district's underlying voter registration and turnout dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Republican outcome well above 80 percent. No late developments have altered the competitive balance in the brief window since primaries concluded.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$26,989End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat in northeast Florida, anchored by consistent partisan voting patterns and structural advantages that have produced large GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean advanced unopposed through the August 18 primary, preserving his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination after defeating challengers, but faces an uphill path against the district's underlying voter registration and turnout dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Republican outcome well above 80 percent. No late developments have altered the competitive balance in the brief window since primaries concluded.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,989End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat in northeast Florida, anchored by consistent partisan voting patterns and structural advantages that have produced large GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean advanced unopposed through the August 18 primary, preserving his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat LaShonda Holloway secured her party's nomination after defeating challengers, but faces an uphill path against the district's underlying voter registration and turnout dynamics. Forecasters rate the contest as solid or safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Republican outcome well above 80 percent. No late developments have altered the competitive balance in the brief window since primaries concluded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions