Florida’s 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime Representative Daniel Webster. Joe Strada secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary after a narrow victory over Carey Baker that required a machine recount confirmed on August 24. Democratic nominee James Pericola advanced from his party’s primary but faces a district with consistent Republican voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Strada’s substantial self-funding advantage, and the absence of recent events that would shift the competitive balance ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-11 House Election Winner
FL-11 House Election Winner
$19,105 Vol.
$19,105 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
15%
$19,105 Vol.
$19,105 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$7,543 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$11,562 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime Representative Daniel Webster. Joe Strada secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary after a narrow victory over Carey Baker that required a machine recount confirmed on August 24. Democratic nominee James Pericola advanced from his party’s primary but faces a district with consistent Republican voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Strada’s substantial self-funding advantage, and the absence of recent events that would shift the competitive balance ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$19,105End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida’s 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime Representative Daniel Webster. Joe Strada secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary after a narrow victory over Carey Baker that required a machine recount confirmed on August 24. Democratic nominee James Pericola advanced from his party’s primary but faces a district with consistent Republican voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Strada’s substantial self-funding advantage, and the absence of recent events that would shift the competitive balance ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,105End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida’s 11th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following the retirement of longtime Representative Daniel Webster. Joe Strada secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary after a narrow victory over Carey Baker that required a machine recount confirmed on August 24. Democratic nominee James Pericola advanced from his party’s primary but faces a district with consistent Republican voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Strada’s substantial self-funding advantage, and the absence of recent events that would shift the competitive balance ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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