Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt—Trump carried it by double digits in 2024—and her status as the appointed incumbent with broad GOP backing, including from President Trump and law enforcement groups. She easily secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary while raising substantial funds and maintaining strong polling margins of 7–10 points. Angie Nixon's upset Democratic primary victory over Alex Vindman introduced a more progressive candidate focused on affordability issues, yet this has not narrowed the gap in a state where Republican structural advantages remain decisive. Trader consensus at over 90% for Moody reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major scandals or unexpected national shifts could still alter the race, though none have materialized in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,223 Vol.
$107,223 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
10%
$107,223 Vol.
$107,223 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$52,645 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$54,577 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt—Trump carried it by double digits in 2024—and her status as the appointed incumbent with broad GOP backing, including from President Trump and law enforcement groups. She easily secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary while raising substantial funds and maintaining strong polling margins of 7–10 points. Angie Nixon's upset Democratic primary victory over Alex Vindman introduced a more progressive candidate focused on affordability issues, yet this has not narrowed the gap in a state where Republican structural advantages remain decisive. Trader consensus at over 90% for Moody reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major scandals or unexpected national shifts could still alter the race, though none have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$107,223Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt—Trump carried it by double digits in 2024—and her status as the appointed incumbent with broad GOP backing, including from President Trump and law enforcement groups. She easily secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary while raising substantial funds and maintaining strong polling margins of 7–10 points. Angie Nixon's upset Democratic primary victory over Alex Vindman introduced a more progressive candidate focused on affordability issues, yet this has not narrowed the gap in a state where Republican structural advantages remain decisive. Trader consensus at over 90% for Moody reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major scandals or unexpected national shifts could still alter the race, though none have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$107,223Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the Florida Senate special election due to the state's consistent Republican tilt—Trump carried it by double digits in 2024—and her status as the appointed incumbent with broad GOP backing, including from President Trump and law enforcement groups. She easily secured her party's nomination in the August 18 primary while raising substantial funds and maintaining strong polling margins of 7–10 points. Angie Nixon's upset Democratic primary victory over Alex Vindman introduced a more progressive candidate focused on affordability issues, yet this has not narrowed the gap in a state where Republican structural advantages remain decisive. Trader consensus at over 90% for Moody reflects these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major scandals or unexpected national shifts could still alter the race, though none have materialized in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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