Oklahoma's entrenched Republican lean in statewide races, reinforced by the state's 34-point Trump margin in 2024 and decades without a Democratic Senate victory, underpins the market's overwhelming Republican consensus. The open seat, created by Markwayne Mullin's resignation, drew a crowded Republican primary won decisively by U.S. Representative Kevin Hern, while Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas emerged from an August 25 runoff against limited opposition. Recent polling shows Hern ahead by roughly 20 points or more, consistent with historical baselines and nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national economic reversal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,335 Vol.
$19,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
96%
Democrat
3%
$19,335 Vol.
$19,335 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$12,754 Vol.
96%
Democrat
$6,582 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's entrenched Republican lean in statewide races, reinforced by the state's 34-point Trump margin in 2024 and decades without a Democratic Senate victory, underpins the market's overwhelming Republican consensus. The open seat, created by Markwayne Mullin's resignation, drew a crowded Republican primary won decisively by U.S. Representative Kevin Hern, while Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas emerged from an August 25 runoff against limited opposition. Recent polling shows Hern ahead by roughly 20 points or more, consistent with historical baselines and nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national economic reversal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$19,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's entrenched Republican lean in statewide races, reinforced by the state's 34-point Trump margin in 2024 and decades without a Democratic Senate victory, underpins the market's overwhelming Republican consensus. The open seat, created by Markwayne Mullin's resignation, drew a crowded Republican primary won decisively by U.S. Representative Kevin Hern, while Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas emerged from an August 25 runoff against limited opposition. Recent polling shows Hern ahead by roughly 20 points or more, consistent with historical baselines and nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national economic reversal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$19,335End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's entrenched Republican lean in statewide races, reinforced by the state's 34-point Trump margin in 2024 and decades without a Democratic Senate victory, underpins the market's overwhelming Republican consensus. The open seat, created by Markwayne Mullin's resignation, drew a crowded Republican primary won decisively by U.S. Representative Kevin Hern, while Democrat N'Kiyla Thomas emerged from an August 25 runoff against limited opposition. Recent polling shows Hern ahead by roughly 20 points or more, consistent with historical baselines and nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest solid or safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp national economic reversal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors make substantial shifts improbable before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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