Iran maintains administrative and military control of Greater Tunb Island through its Hormozgan province and IRGC facilities, a position held since the 1971 seizure amid the UAE's formation. The UAE and GCC states continue to assert the island forms an integral part of Ras al-Khaimah and have pressed claims via statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, including sharpened language at the December 2025 GCC summit. In the 2026 regional conflict, U.S. strikes in July targeted Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on the island to degrade Strait of Hormuz threats, yet produced no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Iran has countered with formal land registration deeds and rejected external claims as baseless. Diplomatic efforts, such as recent Qatar-mediated talks, focus on de-escalation rather than territorial transfer, leaving the longstanding dispute structurally unchanged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$54,749 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
35%
$54,749 Vol.
August 31
$32,084 Vol.
1%
September 30
$156 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control of Greater Tunb Island through its Hormozgan province and IRGC facilities, a position held since the 1971 seizure amid the UAE's formation. The UAE and GCC states continue to assert the island forms an integral part of Ras al-Khaimah and have pressed claims via statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, including sharpened language at the December 2025 GCC summit. In the 2026 regional conflict, U.S. strikes in July targeted Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on the island to degrade Strait of Hormuz threats, yet produced no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Iran has countered with formal land registration deeds and rejected external claims as baseless. Diplomatic efforts, such as recent Qatar-mediated talks, focus on de-escalation rather than territorial transfer, leaving the longstanding dispute structurally unchanged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$54,749End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control of Greater Tunb Island through its Hormozgan province and IRGC facilities, a position held since the 1971 seizure amid the UAE's formation. The UAE and GCC states continue to assert the island forms an integral part of Ras al-Khaimah and have pressed claims via statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, including sharpened language at the December 2025 GCC summit. In the 2026 regional conflict, U.S. strikes in July targeted Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on the island to degrade Strait of Hormuz threats, yet produced no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Iran has countered with formal land registration deeds and rejected external claims as baseless. Diplomatic efforts, such as recent Qatar-mediated talks, focus on de-escalation rather than territorial transfer, leaving the longstanding dispute structurally unchanged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,749End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control of Greater Tunb Island through its Hormozgan province and IRGC facilities, a position held since the 1971 seizure amid the UAE's formation. The UAE and GCC states continue to assert the island forms an integral part of Ras al-Khaimah and have pressed claims via statements urging negotiations or ICJ referral, including sharpened language at the December 2025 GCC summit. In the 2026 regional conflict, U.S. strikes in July targeted Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on the island to degrade Strait of Hormuz threats, yet produced no shift in sovereignty or occupation. Iran has countered with formal land registration deeds and rejected external claims as baseless. Diplomatic efforts, such as recent Qatar-mediated talks, focus on de-escalation rather than territorial transfer, leaving the longstanding dispute structurally unchanged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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