Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hengam Island in Hormozgan Province amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Iranian forces, including IRGC Navy units, have used the island as part of a defensive network around the Strait of Hormuz, with recent statements asserting complete operational control over transit through the waterway and requiring prior coordination for vessels. US and allied strikes have targeted nearby islands and infrastructure, including projectiles reported on Hengam in mid-July and oil pollution incidents linked to attacks on coastal facilities, yet Iranian authorities continue cleanup operations and deny any territorial losses. Diplomatic talks with Oman on Hormuz traffic management have not altered Iranian sovereignty claims, and no verified transfers of authority or successful seizures have occurred. These developments anchor trader assessments of low near-term probability for any shift in control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$173,333 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$173,333 Vol.
August 31
$143,784 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$2,001 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hengam Island in Hormozgan Province amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Iranian forces, including IRGC Navy units, have used the island as part of a defensive network around the Strait of Hormuz, with recent statements asserting complete operational control over transit through the waterway and requiring prior coordination for vessels. US and allied strikes have targeted nearby islands and infrastructure, including projectiles reported on Hengam in mid-July and oil pollution incidents linked to attacks on coastal facilities, yet Iranian authorities continue cleanup operations and deny any territorial losses. Diplomatic talks with Oman on Hormuz traffic management have not altered Iranian sovereignty claims, and no verified transfers of authority or successful seizures have occurred. These developments anchor trader assessments of low near-term probability for any shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$173,333End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hengam Island in Hormozgan Province amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Iranian forces, including IRGC Navy units, have used the island as part of a defensive network around the Strait of Hormuz, with recent statements asserting complete operational control over transit through the waterway and requiring prior coordination for vessels. US and allied strikes have targeted nearby islands and infrastructure, including projectiles reported on Hengam in mid-July and oil pollution incidents linked to attacks on coastal facilities, yet Iranian authorities continue cleanup operations and deny any territorial losses. Diplomatic talks with Oman on Hormuz traffic management have not altered Iranian sovereignty claims, and no verified transfers of authority or successful seizures have occurred. These developments anchor trader assessments of low near-term probability for any shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$173,333End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm military and administrative control over Hengam Island in Hormozgan Province amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Iranian forces, including IRGC Navy units, have used the island as part of a defensive network around the Strait of Hormuz, with recent statements asserting complete operational control over transit through the waterway and requiring prior coordination for vessels. US and allied strikes have targeted nearby islands and infrastructure, including projectiles reported on Hengam in mid-July and oil pollution incidents linked to attacks on coastal facilities, yet Iranian authorities continue cleanup operations and deny any territorial losses. Diplomatic talks with Oman on Hormuz traffic management have not altered Iranian sovereignty claims, and no verified transfers of authority or successful seizures have occurred. These developments anchor trader assessments of low near-term probability for any shift in control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions