Iran maintains unchallenged sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid US-Iran tensions focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and shipping protocols. Recent developments center on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps statements asserting decisive control of the waterway, ongoing bilateral talks with Oman over a temporary joint corridor, and US sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks without any reported military operations or occupation shifts involving the island. Diplomatic efforts to ease blockades and restore limited transit remain stalled, with no verified changes to Iranian administration of coastal islands or territorial waters. Trader consensus reflects the absence of escalation scenarios that would alter island control in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$69,050 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$69,050 Vol.
August 31
$57,064 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$249 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains unchallenged sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid US-Iran tensions focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and shipping protocols. Recent developments center on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps statements asserting decisive control of the waterway, ongoing bilateral talks with Oman over a temporary joint corridor, and US sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks without any reported military operations or occupation shifts involving the island. Diplomatic efforts to ease blockades and restore limited transit remain stalled, with no verified changes to Iranian administration of coastal islands or territorial waters. Trader consensus reflects the absence of escalation scenarios that would alter island control in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$69,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains unchallenged sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid US-Iran tensions focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and shipping protocols. Recent developments center on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps statements asserting decisive control of the waterway, ongoing bilateral talks with Oman over a temporary joint corridor, and US sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks without any reported military operations or occupation shifts involving the island. Diplomatic efforts to ease blockades and restore limited transit remain stalled, with no verified changes to Iranian administration of coastal islands or territorial waters. Trader consensus reflects the absence of escalation scenarios that would alter island control in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains unchallenged sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid US-Iran tensions focused on Strait of Hormuz navigation and shipping protocols. Recent developments center on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps statements asserting decisive control of the waterway, ongoing bilateral talks with Oman over a temporary joint corridor, and US sanctions targeting Iranian financial networks without any reported military operations or occupation shifts involving the island. Diplomatic efforts to ease blockades and restore limited transit remain stalled, with no verified changes to Iranian administration of coastal islands or territorial waters. Trader consensus reflects the absence of escalation scenarios that would alter island control in the near term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions