Hormuz Island continues under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz maritime routes and shipping protocols. Iranian forces have asserted administrative and navigational control through the waterway, backed by IRGC Navy statements and coordination talks with Oman on temporary corridors, while U.S. responses have focused on mine clearance, safe passage assurances, and sanctions pressure rather than island occupation. No verified military actions, diplomatic agreements, or territorial claims have altered primary governmental or military authority on the island itself since the start of 2026 hostilities. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with resolution tied to official government statements or credible reporting confirming a shift in control by the specified date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$69,050 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$69,050 Vol.
August 31
$57,064 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$249 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Hormuz Island continues under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz maritime routes and shipping protocols. Iranian forces have asserted administrative and navigational control through the waterway, backed by IRGC Navy statements and coordination talks with Oman on temporary corridors, while U.S. responses have focused on mine clearance, safe passage assurances, and sanctions pressure rather than island occupation. No verified military actions, diplomatic agreements, or territorial claims have altered primary governmental or military authority on the island itself since the start of 2026 hostilities. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with resolution tied to official government statements or credible reporting confirming a shift in control by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$69,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Hormuz Island continues under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz maritime routes and shipping protocols. Iranian forces have asserted administrative and navigational control through the waterway, backed by IRGC Navy statements and coordination talks with Oman on temporary corridors, while U.S. responses have focused on mine clearance, safe passage assurances, and sanctions pressure rather than island occupation. No verified military actions, diplomatic agreements, or territorial claims have altered primary governmental or military authority on the island itself since the start of 2026 hostilities. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with resolution tied to official government statements or credible reporting confirming a shift in control by the specified date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hormuz Island continues under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid ongoing disputes over Strait of Hormuz maritime routes and shipping protocols. Iranian forces have asserted administrative and navigational control through the waterway, backed by IRGC Navy statements and coordination talks with Oman on temporary corridors, while U.S. responses have focused on mine clearance, safe passage assurances, and sanctions pressure rather than island occupation. No verified military actions, diplomatic agreements, or territorial claims have altered primary governmental or military authority on the island itself since the start of 2026 hostilities. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with resolution tied to official government statements or credible reporting confirming a shift in control by the specified date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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