**Trader consensus at 95.6% for exactly three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries rests on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus expectations for one additional upset before the cycle concludes.** Trump-endorsed challengers prevailed in both cases amid intra-party tensions over alignment with base priorities, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a high-profile Texas runoff and Letlow advancing past Cassidy in Louisiana. Most other Republican incumbents facing primaries, including those in Kansas, South Dakota, and South Carolina, advanced with comfortable margins against limited opposition, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primary losses remain infrequent absent coordinated national efforts or major scandals. Remaining contests, such as in Alaska and Minnesota, show incumbents holding strong leads. Late developments like an unanticipated surge by a challenger in an open or contested race could still push the total to four, though such outcomes appear improbable given current vote trends and filing deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
2
5%
3
96%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
2
$39,226 Vol.
5%
3
$16,999 Vol.
96%
4
$6,571 Vol.
<1%
>4
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus at 95.6% for exactly three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries rests on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus expectations for one additional upset before the cycle concludes.** Trump-endorsed challengers prevailed in both cases amid intra-party tensions over alignment with base priorities, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a high-profile Texas runoff and Letlow advancing past Cassidy in Louisiana. Most other Republican incumbents facing primaries, including those in Kansas, South Dakota, and South Carolina, advanced with comfortable margins against limited opposition, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primary losses remain infrequent absent coordinated national efforts or major scandals. Remaining contests, such as in Alaska and Minnesota, show incumbents holding strong leads. Late developments like an unanticipated surge by a challenger in an open or contested race could still push the total to four, though such outcomes appear improbable given current vote trends and filing deadlines.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$75,434Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus at 95.6% for exactly three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries rests on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus expectations for one additional upset before the cycle concludes.** Trump-endorsed challengers prevailed in both cases amid intra-party tensions over alignment with base priorities, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a high-profile Texas runoff and Letlow advancing past Cassidy in Louisiana. Most other Republican incumbents facing primaries, including those in Kansas, South Dakota, and South Carolina, advanced with comfortable margins against limited opposition, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primary losses remain infrequent absent coordinated national efforts or major scandals. Remaining contests, such as in Alaska and Minnesota, show incumbents holding strong leads. Late developments like an unanticipated surge by a challenger in an open or contested race could still push the total to four, though such outcomes appear improbable given current vote trends and filing deadlines.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$75,434Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus at 95.6% for exactly three Republican Senate incumbents losing their 2026 primaries rests on the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus expectations for one additional upset before the cycle concludes.** Trump-endorsed challengers prevailed in both cases amid intra-party tensions over alignment with base priorities, with Paxton defeating Cornyn in a high-profile Texas runoff and Letlow advancing past Cassidy in Louisiana. Most other Republican incumbents facing primaries, including those in Kansas, South Dakota, and South Carolina, advanced with comfortable margins against limited opposition, consistent with historical patterns where Senate primary losses remain infrequent absent coordinated national efforts or major scandals. Remaining contests, such as in Alaska and Minnesota, show incumbents holding strong leads. Late developments like an unanticipated surge by a challenger in an open or contested race could still push the total to four, though such outcomes appear improbable given current vote trends and filing deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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