With 26 Republican governors currently in office and 36 seats on the ballot in November 2026, forecasters rate the cycle as highly competitive due to an even split of 18 Democratic-held and 18 Republican-held seats up for election, including multiple open contests in swing states. Key battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin feature toss-up or lean ratings across outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with each party holding realistic paths to net gains or losses of several seats depending on turnout, candidate recruitment, and national conditions under the second Trump administration. The narrow spread in trader probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors reflects this balance of pickup opportunities, historical midterm patterns for the president’s party, and limited polling separation in the closest races. Late shifts in economic sentiment or primary resolutions in targeted states could widen the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22–23 33%
24–25 28%
<22 19%
26–27 19%
$690,564 Vol.
$690,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<22
19%
22–23
33%
24–25
28%
26–27
19%
28–29
3%
30–31
1%
32+
<1%
22–23 33%
24–25 28%
<22 19%
26–27 19%
$690,564 Vol.
$690,564 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<22
$48,651 Vol.
19%
22–23
$9,310 Vol.
33%
24–25
$33,007 Vol.
28%
26–27
$17,827 Vol.
19%
28–29
$557,848 Vol.
3%
30–31
$8,332 Vol.
1%
32+
$15,589 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.With 26 Republican governors currently in office and 36 seats on the ballot in November 2026, forecasters rate the cycle as highly competitive due to an even split of 18 Democratic-held and 18 Republican-held seats up for election, including multiple open contests in swing states. Key battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin feature toss-up or lean ratings across outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with each party holding realistic paths to net gains or losses of several seats depending on turnout, candidate recruitment, and national conditions under the second Trump administration. The narrow spread in trader probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors reflects this balance of pickup opportunities, historical midterm patterns for the president’s party, and limited polling separation in the closest races. Late shifts in economic sentiment or primary resolutions in targeted states could widen the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volume
$690,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.With 26 Republican governors currently in office and 36 seats on the ballot in November 2026, forecasters rate the cycle as highly competitive due to an even split of 18 Democratic-held and 18 Republican-held seats up for election, including multiple open contests in swing states. Key battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin feature toss-up or lean ratings across outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with each party holding realistic paths to net gains or losses of several seats depending on turnout, candidate recruitment, and national conditions under the second Trump administration. The narrow spread in trader probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors reflects this balance of pickup opportunities, historical midterm patterns for the president’s party, and limited polling separation in the closest races. Late shifts in economic sentiment or primary resolutions in targeted states could widen the range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$690,564End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 26 Republican governors currently in office and 36 seats on the ballot in November 2026, forecasters rate the cycle as highly competitive due to an even split of 18 Democratic-held and 18 Republican-held seats up for election, including multiple open contests in swing states. Key battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, and Wisconsin feature toss-up or lean ratings across outlets like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, with each party holding realistic paths to net gains or losses of several seats depending on turnout, candidate recruitment, and national conditions under the second Trump administration. The narrow spread in trader probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors reflects this balance of pickup opportunities, historical midterm patterns for the president’s party, and limited polling separation in the closest races. Late shifts in economic sentiment or primary resolutions in targeted states could widen the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions