Recent Houthi attacks, including the Aug. 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, particularly among tankers, while major container carriers like Maersk and MSC have incrementally restored Suez services to ease equipment shortages and cut Cape detours. This has stabilized Bab el-Mandeb volumes near 223–269 AIS-visible crossings in recent weeks, with containers holding firmer than crude flows. The tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 buckets reflects uncertainty over how quickly compliant traffic rebounds versus persistent tanker pullbacks, against a backdrop of still-elevated freight rates and conditional carrier commitments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 19%
160-179 14%
$16,992 Vol.
$16,992 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
6%
160-179
14%
180-199
36%
200-219
31%
220+
19%
180-199 36%
200-219 31%
220+ 19%
160-179 14%
$16,992 Vol.
$16,992 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$203 Vol.
6%
160-179
$202 Vol.
14%
180-199
$431 Vol.
36%
200-219
$14,108 Vol.
31%
220+
$2,047 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the Aug. 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, particularly among tankers, while major container carriers like Maersk and MSC have incrementally restored Suez services to ease equipment shortages and cut Cape detours. This has stabilized Bab el-Mandeb volumes near 223–269 AIS-visible crossings in recent weeks, with containers holding firmer than crude flows. The tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 buckets reflects uncertainty over how quickly compliant traffic rebounds versus persistent tanker pullbacks, against a backdrop of still-elevated freight rates and conditional carrier commitments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$16,992End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the Aug. 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, particularly among tankers, while major container carriers like Maersk and MSC have incrementally restored Suez services to ease equipment shortages and cut Cape detours. This has stabilized Bab el-Mandeb volumes near 223–269 AIS-visible crossings in recent weeks, with containers holding firmer than crude flows. The tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 buckets reflects uncertainty over how quickly compliant traffic rebounds versus persistent tanker pullbacks, against a backdrop of still-elevated freight rates and conditional carrier commitments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$16,992End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the Aug. 24 strike on the Saudi-linked tanker Amzan, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, particularly among tankers, while major container carriers like Maersk and MSC have incrementally restored Suez services to ease equipment shortages and cut Cape detours. This has stabilized Bab el-Mandeb volumes near 223–269 AIS-visible crossings in recent weeks, with containers holding firmer than crude flows. The tight contest between the 180–199 and 200–219 buckets reflects uncertainty over how quickly compliant traffic rebounds versus persistent tanker pullbacks, against a backdrop of still-elevated freight rates and conditional carrier commitments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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