Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained direct enforcement actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including projectile strikes on the MINOAN DIGNITY (August 17–18) and METRO VENETIAN (August 24), plus the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. These followed the mid-August expiration of a temporary transit agreement and coincided with Iran’s blacklist of 45 non-compliant tankers subject to fines, detention, or cargo seizure for violating designated routes or failing to obtain clearance. Trader consensus prices the September 30 outcome near 90 percent because repeated kinetic strikes and boardings since June have established a pattern of enforcement that persists despite U.S. countermeasures and fluctuating traffic volumes. No major diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation has altered this dynamic within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
August 26
25%
August 31
63%
$6,388 Vol.
August 26
$6,366 Vol.
25%
August 31
$22 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained direct enforcement actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including projectile strikes on the MINOAN DIGNITY (August 17–18) and METRO VENETIAN (August 24), plus the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. These followed the mid-August expiration of a temporary transit agreement and coincided with Iran’s blacklist of 45 non-compliant tankers subject to fines, detention, or cargo seizure for violating designated routes or failing to obtain clearance. Trader consensus prices the September 30 outcome near 90 percent because repeated kinetic strikes and boardings since June have established a pattern of enforcement that persists despite U.S. countermeasures and fluctuating traffic volumes. No major diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation has altered this dynamic within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$6,388End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained direct enforcement actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including projectile strikes on the MINOAN DIGNITY (August 17–18) and METRO VENETIAN (August 24), plus the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. These followed the mid-August expiration of a temporary transit agreement and coincided with Iran’s blacklist of 45 non-compliant tankers subject to fines, detention, or cargo seizure for violating designated routes or failing to obtain clearance. Trader consensus prices the September 30 outcome near 90 percent because repeated kinetic strikes and boardings since June have established a pattern of enforcement that persists despite U.S. countermeasures and fluctuating traffic volumes. No major diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation has altered this dynamic within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$6,388End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained direct enforcement actions against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including projectile strikes on the MINOAN DIGNITY (August 17–18) and METRO VENETIAN (August 24), plus the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. These followed the mid-August expiration of a temporary transit agreement and coincided with Iran’s blacklist of 45 non-compliant tankers subject to fines, detention, or cargo seizure for violating designated routes or failing to obtain clearance. Trader consensus prices the September 30 outcome near 90 percent because repeated kinetic strikes and boardings since June have established a pattern of enforcement that persists despite U.S. countermeasures and fluctuating traffic volumes. No major diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation has altered this dynamic within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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