Iran’s ongoing maritime campaign in the Strait of Hormuz has sustained trader focus on near-term targeting risks, driven by repeated IRGC strikes on commercial vessels since the June 17 U.S.-Iran MoU expired on August 17. Recent incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY on August 17-18, the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island, and additional attacks on August 18 that raised seafarer casualties. Iran’s August 24 blacklist of 45 tankers, coupled with threats of fines, detention, and cargo confiscation for rule violations, has further signaled enforcement intent. U.S. sanctions, blockade enforcement, and CENTCOM strikes, alongside Houthi actions in the Red Sea, maintain elevated volatility. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on August 25 for a joint navigation corridor represent the main near-term de-escalation channel that could alter probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$190,990 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
August 17
56%
August 18
35%
August 24
11%
August 25
5%
August 26
2%
August 27
12%
August 28
26%
August 29
20%
August 30
17%
August 31
18%
$190,990 Vol.
August 17
$6,180 Vol.
56%
August 18
$2,542 Vol.
35%
August 24
$11,281 Vol.
11%
August 25
$1,199 Vol.
5%
August 26
$1,341 Vol.
2%
August 27
$2,152 Vol.
12%
August 28
$1,563 Vol.
26%
August 29
$3,035 Vol.
20%
August 30
$860 Vol.
17%
August 31
$3,815 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing maritime campaign in the Strait of Hormuz has sustained trader focus on near-term targeting risks, driven by repeated IRGC strikes on commercial vessels since the June 17 U.S.-Iran MoU expired on August 17. Recent incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY on August 17-18, the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island, and additional attacks on August 18 that raised seafarer casualties. Iran’s August 24 blacklist of 45 tankers, coupled with threats of fines, detention, and cargo confiscation for rule violations, has further signaled enforcement intent. U.S. sanctions, blockade enforcement, and CENTCOM strikes, alongside Houthi actions in the Red Sea, maintain elevated volatility. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on August 25 for a joint navigation corridor represent the main near-term de-escalation channel that could alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$190,990End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s ongoing maritime campaign in the Strait of Hormuz has sustained trader focus on near-term targeting risks, driven by repeated IRGC strikes on commercial vessels since the June 17 U.S.-Iran MoU expired on August 17. Recent incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY on August 17-18, the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island, and additional attacks on August 18 that raised seafarer casualties. Iran’s August 24 blacklist of 45 tankers, coupled with threats of fines, detention, and cargo confiscation for rule violations, has further signaled enforcement intent. U.S. sanctions, blockade enforcement, and CENTCOM strikes, alongside Houthi actions in the Red Sea, maintain elevated volatility. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on August 25 for a joint navigation corridor represent the main near-term de-escalation channel that could alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$190,990End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s ongoing maritime campaign in the Strait of Hormuz has sustained trader focus on near-term targeting risks, driven by repeated IRGC strikes on commercial vessels since the June 17 U.S.-Iran MoU expired on August 17. Recent incidents include a fatal projectile strike on the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY on August 17-18, the seizure of the tanker AMARA near Qeshm Island, and additional attacks on August 18 that raised seafarer casualties. Iran’s August 24 blacklist of 45 tankers, coupled with threats of fines, detention, and cargo confiscation for rule violations, has further signaled enforcement intent. U.S. sanctions, blockade enforcement, and CENTCOM strikes, alongside Houthi actions in the Red Sea, maintain elevated volatility. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman on August 25 for a joint navigation corridor represent the main near-term de-escalation channel that could alter probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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