Kentucky’s 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and has delivered Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus on the Republican nominee. Incumbent Brett Guthrie, first elected in 2008, secured renomination with 85 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, while Democrat Megan Wingfield advanced from a fragmented four-candidate field. Forecasters across Cook, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball uniformly classify the seat as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting consistent registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of polling that would indicate a competitive general election. Late developments capable of narrowing the margin remain limited to a national Democratic wave or district-specific scandal, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-02 House Election Winner
KY-02 House Election Winner
$13,365 Vol.
$13,365 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$13,365 Vol.
$13,365 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,022 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$7,343 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and has delivered Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus on the Republican nominee. Incumbent Brett Guthrie, first elected in 2008, secured renomination with 85 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, while Democrat Megan Wingfield advanced from a fragmented four-candidate field. Forecasters across Cook, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball uniformly classify the seat as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting consistent registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of polling that would indicate a competitive general election. Late developments capable of narrowing the margin remain limited to a national Democratic wave or district-specific scandal, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$13,365End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and has delivered Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus on the Republican nominee. Incumbent Brett Guthrie, first elected in 2008, secured renomination with 85 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, while Democrat Megan Wingfield advanced from a fragmented four-candidate field. Forecasters across Cook, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball uniformly classify the seat as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting consistent registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of polling that would indicate a competitive general election. Late developments capable of narrowing the margin remain limited to a national Democratic wave or district-specific scandal, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,365End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky’s 2nd congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20 and has delivered Republican margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus on the Republican nominee. Incumbent Brett Guthrie, first elected in 2008, secured renomination with 85 percent of the primary vote in May 2026, while Democrat Megan Wingfield advanced from a fragmented four-candidate field. Forecasters across Cook, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball uniformly classify the seat as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting consistent registration advantages, fundraising gaps, and the absence of polling that would indicate a competitive general election. Late developments capable of narrowing the margin remain limited to a national Democratic wave or district-specific scandal, neither of which has materialized in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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