Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with a PVI of R+20 and consistent ratings as solid or safe Republican from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington and independent Liddy Glass alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 all-party primary under the revised map following the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Scalise's fundraising edge exceeds $10 million compared to under $150,000 for his main Democratic challenger, aligning with the district's history of Republican victories by wide margins. This structural advantage underpins the market's 94.5% Republican consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could introduce limited uncertainty before the December runoff if needed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$51,282 Vol.
$51,282 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$51,282 Vol.
$51,282 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,283 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$28,998 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with a PVI of R+20 and consistent ratings as solid or safe Republican from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington and independent Liddy Glass alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 all-party primary under the revised map following the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Scalise's fundraising edge exceeds $10 million compared to under $150,000 for his main Democratic challenger, aligning with the district's history of Republican victories by wide margins. This structural advantage underpins the market's 94.5% Republican consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could introduce limited uncertainty before the December runoff if needed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$51,282End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with a PVI of R+20 and consistent ratings as solid or safe Republican from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington and independent Liddy Glass alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 all-party primary under the revised map following the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Scalise's fundraising edge exceeds $10 million compared to under $150,000 for his main Democratic challenger, aligning with the district's history of Republican victories by wide margins. This structural advantage underpins the market's 94.5% Republican consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could introduce limited uncertainty before the December runoff if needed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$51,282End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, with a PVI of R+20 and consistent ratings as solid or safe Republican from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington and independent Liddy Glass alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett in the November 3 all-party primary under the revised map following the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling. Scalise's fundraising edge exceeds $10 million compared to under $150,000 for his main Democratic challenger, aligning with the district's history of Republican victories by wide margins. This structural advantage underpins the market's 94.5% Republican consensus. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave could introduce limited uncertainty before the December runoff if needed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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