The uncompetitive nature of the November 3, 2026, Louisiana U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis in a solidly Republican state drives trader expectations toward moderate turnout. Historical midterm patterns in Louisiana, including 42% participation in 2022, combined with the open-seat dynamics and limited national salience, support the leading 1.5M-1.6M range as the plurality outcome. Recent party primaries and runoffs under the new semi-closed system showed turnout drops to around 28% and 17% respectively, signaling subdued enthusiasm that could carry into the general election absent major catalysts. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing reflects these structural factors over higher-turnout presidential-year benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.6M-1.7M 29%
1.1M-1.2M 26%
1.2M-1.3M 22%
1.5M-1.6M 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.1M
16%
1.1M-1.2M
26%
1.2M-1.3M
22%
1.3M-1.4M
18%
1.4M-1.5M
18%
1.5M-1.6M
21%
1.6M-1.7M
22%
1.7M+
16%
1.6M-1.7M 29%
1.1M-1.2M 26%
1.2M-1.3M 22%
1.5M-1.6M 21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.1M
$20 Vol.
16%
1.1M-1.2M
$79 Vol.
26%
1.2M-1.3M
$20 Vol.
22%
1.3M-1.4M
$20 Vol.
18%
1.4M-1.5M
$20 Vol.
18%
1.5M-1.6M
$76 Vol.
21%
1.6M-1.7M
$40 Vol.
22%
1.7M+
$20 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The uncompetitive nature of the November 3, 2026, Louisiana U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis in a solidly Republican state drives trader expectations toward moderate turnout. Historical midterm patterns in Louisiana, including 42% participation in 2022, combined with the open-seat dynamics and limited national salience, support the leading 1.5M-1.6M range as the plurality outcome. Recent party primaries and runoffs under the new semi-closed system showed turnout drops to around 28% and 17% respectively, signaling subdued enthusiasm that could carry into the general election absent major catalysts. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing reflects these structural factors over higher-turnout presidential-year benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
Volume
$295End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The uncompetitive nature of the November 3, 2026, Louisiana U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis in a solidly Republican state drives trader expectations toward moderate turnout. Historical midterm patterns in Louisiana, including 42% participation in 2022, combined with the open-seat dynamics and limited national salience, support the leading 1.5M-1.6M range as the plurality outcome. Recent party primaries and runoffs under the new semi-closed system showed turnout drops to around 28% and 17% respectively, signaling subdued enthusiasm that could carry into the general election absent major catalysts. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing reflects these structural factors over higher-turnout presidential-year benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$295End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The uncompetitive nature of the November 3, 2026, Louisiana U.S. Senate general election between Republican Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis in a solidly Republican state drives trader expectations toward moderate turnout. Historical midterm patterns in Louisiana, including 42% participation in 2022, combined with the open-seat dynamics and limited national salience, support the leading 1.5M-1.6M range as the plurality outcome. Recent party primaries and runoffs under the new semi-closed system showed turnout drops to around 28% and 17% respectively, signaling subdued enthusiasm that could carry into the general election absent major catalysts. The wisdom of crowds in current pricing reflects these structural factors over higher-turnout presidential-year benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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