Republican Kurt Alme maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 92 percent probability of victory. The open seat, created by incumbent Steve Daines’s March withdrawal and endorsement of Alme, has favored the Republican nominee, who won his primary decisively and secured backing from President Trump. Polling averages since the June primaries show Alme ahead by 12–25 points in a four-way general election contest, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting opposition support. Expert ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. A unified challenge could emerge only if Bankhead withdraws before November 3 and consolidates non-Republican voters behind Bodnar, or if late-breaking developments sharply alter turnout or candidate viability in the Republican-leaning state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 92%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$115,462 Vol.
$115,462 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
92%
Independent
4%
Democrat
1%
Republican 92%
Independent 3.8%
Democrat <1%
$115,462 Vol.
$115,462 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$58,410 Vol.
92%
Independent
$16,883 Vol.
4%
Democrat
$40,169 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 92 percent probability of victory. The open seat, created by incumbent Steve Daines’s March withdrawal and endorsement of Alme, has favored the Republican nominee, who won his primary decisively and secured backing from President Trump. Polling averages since the June primaries show Alme ahead by 12–25 points in a four-way general election contest, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting opposition support. Expert ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. A unified challenge could emerge only if Bankhead withdraws before November 3 and consolidates non-Republican voters behind Bodnar, or if late-breaking developments sharply alter turnout or candidate viability in the Republican-leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$115,462End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican Kurt Alme maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 92 percent probability of victory. The open seat, created by incumbent Steve Daines’s March withdrawal and endorsement of Alme, has favored the Republican nominee, who won his primary decisively and secured backing from President Trump. Polling averages since the June primaries show Alme ahead by 12–25 points in a four-way general election contest, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting opposition support. Expert ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. A unified challenge could emerge only if Bankhead withdraws before November 3 and consolidates non-Republican voters behind Bodnar, or if late-breaking developments sharply alter turnout or candidate viability in the Republican-leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$115,462End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Kurt Alme maintains a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, reflected in trader consensus around 92 percent probability of victory. The open seat, created by incumbent Steve Daines’s March withdrawal and endorsement of Alme, has favored the Republican nominee, who won his primary decisively and secured backing from President Trump. Polling averages since the June primaries show Alme ahead by 12–25 points in a four-way general election contest, with Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar splitting opposition support. Expert ratings classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican. A unified challenge could emerge only if Bankhead withdraws before November 3 and consolidates non-Republican voters behind Bodnar, or if late-breaking developments sharply alter turnout or candidate viability in the Republican-leaning state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions