Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race due to New York’s longstanding Democratic voter registration advantage and her status as incumbent with established name recognition and fundraising resources. Recent Siena polling shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman by double digits statewide, with approval ratings above 50 percent, while Blakeman remains less known beyond Long Island despite modest favorability gains. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and forecasters rate the contest as solidly Democratic. Traders assign Hochul over 94 percent implied probability because structural partisan factors and polling margins have proven durable in similar statewide contests. A late scandal, sharp economic deterioration on affordability issues, or unexpected turnout surge for Blakeman on public safety and immigration enforcement could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in New York suggest limited scope for such shifts before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew York Governor Election Winner
New York Governor Election Winner
$104,503 Vol.
$104,503 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Hochul
95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)
5%
$104,503 Vol.
$104,503 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Hochul
$49,219 Vol.
95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)
$55,284 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race due to New York’s longstanding Democratic voter registration advantage and her status as incumbent with established name recognition and fundraising resources. Recent Siena polling shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman by double digits statewide, with approval ratings above 50 percent, while Blakeman remains less known beyond Long Island despite modest favorability gains. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and forecasters rate the contest as solidly Democratic. Traders assign Hochul over 94 percent implied probability because structural partisan factors and polling margins have proven durable in similar statewide contests. A late scandal, sharp economic deterioration on affordability issues, or unexpected turnout surge for Blakeman on public safety and immigration enforcement could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in New York suggest limited scope for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$104,503End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race due to New York’s longstanding Democratic voter registration advantage and her status as incumbent with established name recognition and fundraising resources. Recent Siena polling shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman by double digits statewide, with approval ratings above 50 percent, while Blakeman remains less known beyond Long Island despite modest favorability gains. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and forecasters rate the contest as solidly Democratic. Traders assign Hochul over 94 percent implied probability because structural partisan factors and polling margins have proven durable in similar statewide contests. A late scandal, sharp economic deterioration on affordability issues, or unexpected turnout surge for Blakeman on public safety and immigration enforcement could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in New York suggest limited scope for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$104,503End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Hochul holds a commanding position in the 2026 New York gubernatorial race due to New York’s longstanding Democratic voter registration advantage and her status as incumbent with established name recognition and fundraising resources. Recent Siena polling shows her leading Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman by double digits statewide, with approval ratings above 50 percent, while Blakeman remains less known beyond Long Island despite modest favorability gains. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and forecasters rate the contest as solidly Democratic. Traders assign Hochul over 94 percent implied probability because structural partisan factors and polling margins have proven durable in similar statewide contests. A late scandal, sharp economic deterioration on affordability issues, or unexpected turnout surge for Blakeman on public safety and immigration enforcement could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in New York suggest limited scope for such shifts before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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