Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro has remained in partner testing without a public release since its May 2026 I/O tease and missed June–July targets, as performance shortfalls in coding and agentic tasks prompted further tweaks and a data reset. Traders see this pattern of delays, combined with Google's rapid August rollout of Flash variants like 3.7 Flash and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training, as strong evidence against any Pro launch in the final days of August. The market-implied 96.7% odds for no release by August 31 reflect this consensus backed by real capital. A last-minute internal breakthrough meeting benchmarks or an unannounced drop could still shift timelines, though historical slips and the lack of firm signals make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by August 31 96.7%
August 27 1.3%
August 31 <1%
August 30 <1%
$310,540 Vol.
$310,540 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
August 26
1%
August 27
1%
August 28
1%
August 29
1%
August 30
1%
August 31
1%
No release by August 31
97%
No release by August 31 96.7%
August 27 1.3%
August 31 <1%
August 30 <1%
$310,540 Vol.
$310,540 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
August 26
$5,099 Vol.
1%
August 27
$9,796 Vol.
1%
August 28
$4,699 Vol.
1%
August 29
$6,808 Vol.
1%
August 30
$3,681 Vol.
1%
August 31
$9,285 Vol.
1%
No release by August 31
$80,948 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro has remained in partner testing without a public release since its May 2026 I/O tease and missed June–July targets, as performance shortfalls in coding and agentic tasks prompted further tweaks and a data reset. Traders see this pattern of delays, combined with Google's rapid August rollout of Flash variants like 3.7 Flash and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training, as strong evidence against any Pro launch in the final days of August. The market-implied 96.7% odds for no release by August 31 reflect this consensus backed by real capital. A last-minute internal breakthrough meeting benchmarks or an unannounced drop could still shift timelines, though historical slips and the lack of firm signals make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$310,540End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro has remained in partner testing without a public release since its May 2026 I/O tease and missed June–July targets, as performance shortfalls in coding and agentic tasks prompted further tweaks and a data reset. Traders see this pattern of delays, combined with Google's rapid August rollout of Flash variants like 3.7 Flash and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training, as strong evidence against any Pro launch in the final days of August. The market-implied 96.7% odds for no release by August 31 reflect this consensus backed by real capital. A last-minute internal breakthrough meeting benchmarks or an unannounced drop could still shift timelines, though historical slips and the lack of firm signals make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$310,540End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro has remained in partner testing without a public release since its May 2026 I/O tease and missed June–July targets, as performance shortfalls in coding and agentic tasks prompted further tweaks and a data reset. Traders see this pattern of delays, combined with Google's rapid August rollout of Flash variants like 3.7 Flash and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training, as strong evidence against any Pro launch in the final days of August. The market-implied 96.7% odds for no release by August 31 reflect this consensus backed by real capital. A last-minute internal breakthrough meeting benchmarks or an unannounced drop could still shift timelines, though historical slips and the lack of firm signals make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions