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Politics·Main Election

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

icon for Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Politics·Main Election

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp 75%

Stefan Evers 12%

Werner Graf 3.6%

Steffen Krach 2.7%

Polymarket

$39,543 Vol.

Elif Eralp 75%

Stefan Evers 12%

Werner Graf 3.6%

Steffen Krach 2.7%

Polymarket

$39,543 Vol.

icon for Elif Eralp

Elif Eralp

$15,742 Vol.

75%

icon for Stefan Evers

Stefan Evers

$13,332 Vol.

12%

icon for Werner Graf

Werner Graf

$7,061 Vol.

4%

icon for Steffen Krach

Steffen Krach

$1,313 Vol.

3%

icon for Kristin Brinker

Kristin Brinker

$2,095 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads trader consensus at 75% implied probability for Berlin's next governing mayor, driven by her party's consistent polling edge near 22% ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election and prospects for a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent Kai Wegner's July 2026 withdrawal as CDU lead candidate, following criticism of his January power outage response, shifted the CDU to finance senator Stefan Evers, whose party trails in surveys and holds only 11.5% market share. Other named candidates, including Werner Graf of the Greens and Steffen Krach of the SPD, register low single-digit probabilities aligned with their parties' polling positions in a fragmented field. Coalition arithmetic and turnout among housing-focused voters remain key variables ahead of post-election negotiations.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,543
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elif Eralp of Die Linke leads trader consensus at 75% implied probability for Berlin's next governing mayor, driven by her party's consistent polling edge near 22% ahead of the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election and prospects for a left-leaning coalition. Incumbent Kai Wegner's July 2026 withdrawal as CDU lead candidate, following criticism of his January power outage response, shifted the CDU to finance senator Stefan Evers, whose party trails in surveys and holds only 11.5% market share. Other named candidates, including Werner Graf of the Greens and Steffen Krach of the SPD, register low single-digit probabilities aligned with their parties' polling positions in a fragmented field. Coalition arithmetic and turnout among housing-focused voters remain key variables ahead of post-election negotiations.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,543
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 7:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Regierender Bürgermeister (Governing Mayor) of Berlin following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Governing Mayor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Governing Mayor takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elif Eralp" at 75%, followed by "Stefan Evers" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?" has generated $39.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?" is "Elif Eralp" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Stefan Evers" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.