Recent late-August polls from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen show the AfD holding a commanding lead at 40-42% ahead of the September 6 vote, roughly doubling its 2021 result while the CDU falls to 22-23%. With the five-percent threshold excluding the BSW and FDP and allowing the Left, SPD, and Greens to enter, seat projections place the AfD in the high 30s to low 40s out of 83 total seats—short of the 42 needed for a majority. No other party will form a coalition with the AfD, and uncommitted voters remain around 10-30% with minimal recent movement in the numbers. These dynamics anchor trader consensus on the 38-41 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38-41 73%
42-45 18%
34-37 4.9%
46-49 3.3%
$46,773 Vol.
$46,773 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<34
2%
34-37
5%
38-41
73%
42-45
18%
46-49
3%
50+
1%
38-41 73%
42-45 18%
34-37 4.9%
46-49 3.3%
$46,773 Vol.
$46,773 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<34
$7,188 Vol.
2%
34-37
$7,488 Vol.
5%
38-41
$12,697 Vol.
73%
42-45
$10,171 Vol.
18%
46-49
$4,633 Vol.
3%
50+
$4,596 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent late-August polls from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen show the AfD holding a commanding lead at 40-42% ahead of the September 6 vote, roughly doubling its 2021 result while the CDU falls to 22-23%. With the five-percent threshold excluding the BSW and FDP and allowing the Left, SPD, and Greens to enter, seat projections place the AfD in the high 30s to low 40s out of 83 total seats—short of the 42 needed for a majority. No other party will form a coalition with the AfD, and uncommitted voters remain around 10-30% with minimal recent movement in the numbers. These dynamics anchor trader consensus on the 38-41 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Volume
$46,773End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent late-August polls from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen show the AfD holding a commanding lead at 40-42% ahead of the September 6 vote, roughly doubling its 2021 result while the CDU falls to 22-23%. With the five-percent threshold excluding the BSW and FDP and allowing the Left, SPD, and Greens to enter, seat projections place the AfD in the high 30s to low 40s out of 83 total seats—short of the 42 needed for a majority. No other party will form a coalition with the AfD, and uncommitted voters remain around 10-30% with minimal recent movement in the numbers. These dynamics anchor trader consensus on the 38-41 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election.
If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$46,773End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent late-August polls from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen show the AfD holding a commanding lead at 40-42% ahead of the September 6 vote, roughly doubling its 2021 result while the CDU falls to 22-23%. With the five-percent threshold excluding the BSW and FDP and allowing the Left, SPD, and Greens to enter, seat projections place the AfD in the high 30s to low 40s out of 83 total seats—short of the 42 needed for a majority. No other party will form a coalition with the AfD, and uncommitted voters remain around 10-30% with minimal recent movement in the numbers. These dynamics anchor trader consensus on the 38-41 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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