**Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds an 88% implied probability in the NV-04 House race, with Republican nominee Cody Whipple at 11%.** Horsford, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024 with 52.7%, faces no Democratic primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising, labor and organizational endorsements, and the district’s D+1 to D+2 partisan lean that includes Democratic-leaning North Las Vegas suburbs alongside rural areas. Whipple, a telecommunications business owner, secured the Republican nomination in the June 9, 2026 primary with 61.8% but enters the general as a lesser-known challenger in a seat rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. Models project Horsford winning by roughly 10 points on fundamentals, though the district’s mix of urban and rural voters and Nevada’s recent rightward shift keep the contest on watch lists. The November 3, 2026 general remains the key resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNV-04 House Election Winner
NV-04 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,028 Vol.
88%
Republican Party
$2,254 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds an 88% implied probability in the NV-04 House race, with Republican nominee Cody Whipple at 11%.** Horsford, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024 with 52.7%, faces no Democratic primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising, labor and organizational endorsements, and the district’s D+1 to D+2 partisan lean that includes Democratic-leaning North Las Vegas suburbs alongside rural areas. Whipple, a telecommunications business owner, secured the Republican nomination in the June 9, 2026 primary with 61.8% but enters the general as a lesser-known challenger in a seat rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. Models project Horsford winning by roughly 10 points on fundamentals, though the district’s mix of urban and rural voters and Nevada’s recent rightward shift keep the contest on watch lists. The November 3, 2026 general remains the key resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$4,282End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds an 88% implied probability in the NV-04 House race, with Republican nominee Cody Whipple at 11%.** Horsford, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024 with 52.7%, faces no Democratic primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising, labor and organizational endorsements, and the district’s D+1 to D+2 partisan lean that includes Democratic-leaning North Las Vegas suburbs alongside rural areas. Whipple, a telecommunications business owner, secured the Republican nomination in the June 9, 2026 primary with 61.8% but enters the general as a lesser-known challenger in a seat rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. Models project Horsford winning by roughly 10 points on fundamentals, though the district’s mix of urban and rural voters and Nevada’s recent rightward shift keep the contest on watch lists. The November 3, 2026 general remains the key resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,282End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Steven Horsford holds an 88% implied probability in the NV-04 House race, with Republican nominee Cody Whipple at 11%.** Horsford, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024 with 52.7%, faces no Democratic primary opposition and benefits from substantial fundraising, labor and organizational endorsements, and the district’s D+1 to D+2 partisan lean that includes Democratic-leaning North Las Vegas suburbs alongside rural areas. Whipple, a telecommunications business owner, secured the Republican nomination in the June 9, 2026 primary with 61.8% but enters the general as a lesser-known challenger in a seat rated “Likely Democratic” by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. Models project Horsford winning by roughly 10 points on fundamentals, though the district’s mix of urban and rural voters and Nevada’s recent rightward shift keep the contest on watch lists. The November 3, 2026 general remains the key resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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