The NY-11 district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and multiple independent ratings classifying it as solidly Republican, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis secured the nomination without primary opposition, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from a June 2026 primary against limited competition, entering the November 3 general election with comparatively modest fundraising and visibility. Ongoing federal litigation over district lines, initiated in late 2025, has not produced map changes in time to affect the current cycle. Late developments such as a successful boundary redraw, major scandal, or pronounced national political shift could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit those probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-11 House Election Winner
NY-11 House Election Winner
$25,877 Vol.
$25,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$25,877 Vol.
$25,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$12,783 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$13,094 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-11 district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and multiple independent ratings classifying it as solidly Republican, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis secured the nomination without primary opposition, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from a June 2026 primary against limited competition, entering the November 3 general election with comparatively modest fundraising and visibility. Ongoing federal litigation over district lines, initiated in late 2025, has not produced map changes in time to affect the current cycle. Late developments such as a successful boundary redraw, major scandal, or pronounced national political shift could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit those probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$25,877End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-11 district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and multiple independent ratings classifying it as solidly Republican, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis secured the nomination without primary opposition, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from a June 2026 primary against limited competition, entering the November 3 general election with comparatively modest fundraising and visibility. Ongoing federal litigation over district lines, initiated in late 2025, has not produced map changes in time to affect the current cycle. Late developments such as a successful boundary redraw, major scandal, or pronounced national political shift could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit those probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,877End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-11 district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 partisan voting index and multiple independent ratings classifying it as solidly Republican, underpins the strong market consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Representative Nicole Malliotakis secured the nomination without primary opposition, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from a June 2026 primary against limited competition, entering the November 3 general election with comparatively modest fundraising and visibility. Ongoing federal litigation over district lines, initiated in late 2025, has not produced map changes in time to affect the current cycle. Late developments such as a successful boundary redraw, major scandal, or pronounced national political shift could still narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current structural factors limit those probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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