The NY-12 district’s entrenched Democratic advantage, rooted in its Manhattan demographics and consistent 60-80 point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96%. Micah Lasher’s June 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, followed Jerrold Nadler’s retirement and secured the nomination in a race rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Limited Republican infrastructure and Caroline Shinkle’s uncontested primary further reinforce the positioning. Shifts could occur only through a major scandal, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or an extreme national environment favoring Republicans, none of which have materialized in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,262 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-12 district’s entrenched Democratic advantage, rooted in its Manhattan demographics and consistent 60-80 point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96%. Micah Lasher’s June 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, followed Jerrold Nadler’s retirement and secured the nomination in a race rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Limited Republican infrastructure and Caroline Shinkle’s uncontested primary further reinforce the positioning. Shifts could occur only through a major scandal, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or an extreme national environment favoring Republicans, none of which have materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-12 district’s entrenched Democratic advantage, rooted in its Manhattan demographics and consistent 60-80 point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96%. Micah Lasher’s June 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, followed Jerrold Nadler’s retirement and secured the nomination in a race rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Limited Republican infrastructure and Caroline Shinkle’s uncontested primary further reinforce the positioning. Shifts could occur only through a major scandal, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or an extreme national environment favoring Republicans, none of which have materialized in available data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-12 district’s entrenched Democratic advantage, rooted in its Manhattan demographics and consistent 60-80 point margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 96%. Micah Lasher’s June 2026 primary victory over a crowded field, including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, followed Jerrold Nadler’s retirement and secured the nomination in a race rated Solid Democratic by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Limited Republican infrastructure and Caroline Shinkle’s uncontested primary further reinforce the positioning. Shifts could occur only through a major scandal, sharply depressed Democratic turnout, or an extreme national environment favoring Republicans, none of which have materialized in available data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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