New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader pricing that assigns the party a 93-94% implied probability of retaining the open seat in the November 2026 general election. The district's partisan lean—demonstrated by Kamala Harris's 14.5-point margin in 2024—combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors this consensus. Adam Hamawy secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary against a crowded field, while Republican Gregg Mele advanced unopposed. Historical voting patterns, registration advantages, and limited crossover potential sustain the frontrunner position ahead of Election Day. A Republican victory would require a substantial national midterm swing, significant Democratic turnout erosion, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the district's established baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-12 House Election Winner
NJ-12 House Election Winner
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$22,311 Vol.
$22,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,221 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,089 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader pricing that assigns the party a 93-94% implied probability of retaining the open seat in the November 2026 general election. The district's partisan lean—demonstrated by Kamala Harris's 14.5-point margin in 2024—combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors this consensus. Adam Hamawy secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary against a crowded field, while Republican Gregg Mele advanced unopposed. Historical voting patterns, registration advantages, and limited crossover potential sustain the frontrunner position ahead of Election Day. A Republican victory would require a substantial national midterm swing, significant Democratic turnout erosion, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the district's established baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$22,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader pricing that assigns the party a 93-94% implied probability of retaining the open seat in the November 2026 general election. The district's partisan lean—demonstrated by Kamala Harris's 14.5-point margin in 2024—combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors this consensus. Adam Hamawy secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary against a crowded field, while Republican Gregg Mele advanced unopposed. Historical voting patterns, registration advantages, and limited crossover potential sustain the frontrunner position ahead of Election Day. A Republican victory would require a substantial national midterm swing, significant Democratic turnout erosion, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the district's established baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,311End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic structural advantage, reflected in trader pricing that assigns the party a 93-94% implied probability of retaining the open seat in the November 2026 general election. The district's partisan lean—demonstrated by Kamala Harris's 14.5-point margin in 2024—combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying it as Solid or Safe Democratic, anchors this consensus. Adam Hamawy secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary against a crowded field, while Republican Gregg Mele advanced unopposed. Historical voting patterns, registration advantages, and limited crossover potential sustain the frontrunner position ahead of Election Day. A Republican victory would require a substantial national midterm swing, significant Democratic turnout erosion, or late-cycle developments capable of overcoming the district's established baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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