Analilia Mejia secured the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district with an 81.7% primary victory in June 2026 and previously won the April 2026 special election 60.2% to 39.4% against Republican Joe Hathaway. The district’s D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball reflect its structural Democratic lean. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national Republican surge, major late-cycle scandal involving Mejia, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in suburban counties could narrow the margin, though the district’s voting patterns and recent results make a Republican victory improbable absent dramatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$39,560 Vol.
$39,560 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$39,560 Vol.
$39,560 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$23,586 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,975 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia secured the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district with an 81.7% primary victory in June 2026 and previously won the April 2026 special election 60.2% to 39.4% against Republican Joe Hathaway. The district’s D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball reflect its structural Democratic lean. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national Republican surge, major late-cycle scandal involving Mejia, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in suburban counties could narrow the margin, though the district’s voting patterns and recent results make a Republican victory improbable absent dramatic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,560End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia secured the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district with an 81.7% primary victory in June 2026 and previously won the April 2026 special election 60.2% to 39.4% against Republican Joe Hathaway. The district’s D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball reflect its structural Democratic lean. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national Republican surge, major late-cycle scandal involving Mejia, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in suburban counties could narrow the margin, though the district’s voting patterns and recent results make a Republican victory improbable absent dramatic shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,560End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Analilia Mejia secured the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district with an 81.7% primary victory in June 2026 and previously won the April 2026 special election 60.2% to 39.4% against Republican Joe Hathaway. The district’s D+5 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball reflect its structural Democratic lean. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national Republican surge, major late-cycle scandal involving Mejia, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters in suburban counties could narrow the margin, though the district’s voting patterns and recent results make a Republican victory improbable absent dramatic shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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