New Jersey’s 10th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by Newark’s urban core and a consistent partisan lean exceeding D+25. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with 85 percent in the June 2026 primary against a little-known challenger, backed by county organizations and local leaders. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers including historically low GOP turnout and double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus near 95 percent. A major scandal, health event, or unforeseen primary replacement would represent the narrowest realistic paths to altering the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-10 House Election Winner
NJ-10 House Election Winner
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$46,708 Vol.
$46,708 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,890 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$32,818 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 10th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by Newark’s urban core and a consistent partisan lean exceeding D+25. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with 85 percent in the June 2026 primary against a little-known challenger, backed by county organizations and local leaders. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers including historically low GOP turnout and double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus near 95 percent. A major scandal, health event, or unforeseen primary replacement would represent the narrowest realistic paths to altering the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 10th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by Newark’s urban core and a consistent partisan lean exceeding D+25. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with 85 percent in the June 2026 primary against a little-known challenger, backed by county organizations and local leaders. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers including historically low GOP turnout and double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus near 95 percent. A major scandal, health event, or unforeseen primary replacement would represent the narrowest realistic paths to altering the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,708End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey’s 10th congressional district remains one of the nation’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by Newark’s urban core and a consistent partisan lean exceeding D+25. Incumbent Democrat LaMonica McIver secured her party’s nomination with 85 percent in the June 2026 primary against a little-known challenger, backed by county organizations and local leaders. Republican nominee Carmen Bucco, a perennial candidate, faces structural barriers including historically low GOP turnout and double-digit Democratic margins in prior cycles. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus near 95 percent. A major scandal, health event, or unforeseen primary replacement would represent the narrowest realistic paths to altering the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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