OpenAI's ChatGPT service has experienced only isolated, short-duration incidents throughout August 2026, with the most recent on August 27 involving elevated error rates for Workspace Agents and ChatGPT Work that resolved within roughly four hours. Earlier events, such as brief login issues on August 20 and partial outages on August 21, similarly remained limited in scope and duration without producing widespread or multi-hour downtime on additional calendar days. With the platform operating normally as of August 29 and just two days remaining in the month, traders assign a 98% implied probability to fewer than three outage days based on this pattern of quick mitigations and high overall uptime for the large language model service. A sudden infrastructure failure or prolonged degradation on August 30 or 31 could still push the total higher, though historical recovery times make that outcome appear remote to market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<3 98.0%
5 1.7%
4 1.3%
3 <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<3
98%
3
1%
4
1%
5
2%
6+
<1%
<3 98.0%
5 1.7%
4 1.3%
3 <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<3
$4,913 Vol.
98%
3
$1,113 Vol.
1%
4
$1,262 Vol.
1%
5
$478 Vol.
2%
6+
$1,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's ChatGPT service has experienced only isolated, short-duration incidents throughout August 2026, with the most recent on August 27 involving elevated error rates for Workspace Agents and ChatGPT Work that resolved within roughly four hours. Earlier events, such as brief login issues on August 20 and partial outages on August 21, similarly remained limited in scope and duration without producing widespread or multi-hour downtime on additional calendar days. With the platform operating normally as of August 29 and just two days remaining in the month, traders assign a 98% implied probability to fewer than three outage days based on this pattern of quick mitigations and high overall uptime for the large language model service.
A sudden infrastructure failure or prolonged degradation on August 30 or 31 could still push the total higher, though historical recovery times make that outcome appear remote to market participants.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$9,474End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's ChatGPT service has experienced only isolated, short-duration incidents throughout August 2026, with the most recent on August 27 involving elevated error rates for Workspace Agents and ChatGPT Work that resolved within roughly four hours. Earlier events, such as brief login issues on August 20 and partial outages on August 21, similarly remained limited in scope and duration without producing widespread or multi-hour downtime on additional calendar days. With the platform operating normally as of August 29 and just two days remaining in the month, traders assign a 98% implied probability to fewer than three outage days based on this pattern of quick mitigations and high overall uptime for the large language model service.
A sudden infrastructure failure or prolonged degradation on August 30 or 31 could still push the total higher, though historical recovery times make that outcome appear remote to market participants.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,474End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's ChatGPT service has experienced only isolated, short-duration incidents throughout August 2026, with the most recent on August 27 involving elevated error rates for Workspace Agents and ChatGPT Work that resolved within roughly four hours. Earlier events, such as brief login issues on August 20 and partial outages on August 21, similarly remained limited in scope and duration without producing widespread or multi-hour downtime on additional calendar days. With the platform operating normally as of August 29 and just two days remaining in the month, traders assign a 98% implied probability to fewer than three outage days based on this pattern of quick mitigations and high overall uptime for the large language model service. A sudden infrastructure failure or prolonged degradation on August 30 or 31 could still push the total higher, though historical recovery times make that outcome appear remote to market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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