**Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman faces Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, a seat that recent redistricting shifted from a modest Democratic lean toward even or slightly Republican territory.** Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, with models projecting a narrow Landsman win around 51-52% to 48-49%. This aligns with trader consensus pricing the contest near even odds across candidate and margin buckets, reflecting the district’s underlying competitiveness after map changes that added rural counties while retaining Cincinnati-area suburbs. Key dynamics sustaining the tight positioning include Landsman’s incumbency advantage and name recognition against Conroy’s profile as a former CIA officer, combined with the absence of decisive polling or major campaign events since the May primaries. Historical midterm patterns and the district’s recent voting behavior—where presidential results hovered near the national average—further support the balanced pricing. Limited public polling data leaves room for volatility, as small shifts in turnout among suburban or working-class voters could alter the final margin. Upcoming catalysts such as fall debates, candidate fundraising disclosures, or broader national political developments could widen separation by clarifying voter sentiment in this battleground. Resolution hinges on the certified November 3 general election results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-01 House Election Margin of Victory
OH-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 3%+ 35.9%
Democrat 0-3% 35%
Democrat 18-21% 34%
Democrat 15-18% 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
27%
Democrat 18-21%
34%
Democrat 15-18%
32%
Democrat 12-15%
29%
Democrat 9-12%
32%
Democrat 6-9%
28%
Democrat 3-6%
28%
Democrat 0-3%
35%
Republican 0-3%
9%
Republican 3%+
36%
Republican 3%+ 35.9%
Democrat 0-3% 35%
Democrat 18-21% 34%
Democrat 15-18% 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
$20 Vol.
27%
Democrat 18-21%
$20 Vol.
34%
Democrat 15-18%
$20 Vol.
32%
Democrat 12-15%
$20 Vol.
29%
Democrat 9-12%
$20 Vol.
32%
Democrat 6-9%
$20 Vol.
28%
Democrat 3-6%
$20 Vol.
28%
Democrat 0-3%
$20 Vol.
35%
Republican 0-3%
$88 Vol.
9%
Republican 3%+
$68 Vol.
36%
The 2026 OH-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman faces Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, a seat that recent redistricting shifted from a modest Democratic lean toward even or slightly Republican territory.** Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, with models projecting a narrow Landsman win around 51-52% to 48-49%. This aligns with trader consensus pricing the contest near even odds across candidate and margin buckets, reflecting the district’s underlying competitiveness after map changes that added rural counties while retaining Cincinnati-area suburbs.
Key dynamics sustaining the tight positioning include Landsman’s incumbency advantage and name recognition against Conroy’s profile as a former CIA officer, combined with the absence of decisive polling or major campaign events since the May primaries. Historical midterm patterns and the district’s recent voting behavior—where presidential results hovered near the national average—further support the balanced pricing. Limited public polling data leaves room for volatility, as small shifts in turnout among suburban or working-class voters could alter the final margin.
Upcoming catalysts such as fall debates, candidate fundraising disclosures, or broader national political developments could widen separation by clarifying voter sentiment in this battleground. Resolution hinges on the certified November 3 general election results.
The 2026 OH-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 OH-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman faces Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, a seat that recent redistricting shifted from a modest Democratic lean toward even or slightly Republican territory.** Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, with models projecting a narrow Landsman win around 51-52% to 48-49%. This aligns with trader consensus pricing the contest near even odds across candidate and margin buckets, reflecting the district’s underlying competitiveness after map changes that added rural counties while retaining Cincinnati-area suburbs.
Key dynamics sustaining the tight positioning include Landsman’s incumbency advantage and name recognition against Conroy’s profile as a former CIA officer, combined with the absence of decisive polling or major campaign events since the May primaries. Historical midterm patterns and the district’s recent voting behavior—where presidential results hovered near the national average—further support the balanced pricing. Limited public polling data leaves room for volatility, as small shifts in turnout among suburban or working-class voters could alter the final margin.
Upcoming catalysts such as fall debates, candidate fundraising disclosures, or broader national political developments could widen separation by clarifying voter sentiment in this battleground. Resolution hinges on the certified November 3 general election results.
The 2026 OH-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$316End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman faces Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, a seat that recent redistricting shifted from a modest Democratic lean toward even or slightly Republican territory.** Forecasters rate the race Lean or Tilt Democratic, with models projecting a narrow Landsman win around 51-52% to 48-49%. This aligns with trader consensus pricing the contest near even odds across candidate and margin buckets, reflecting the district’s underlying competitiveness after map changes that added rural counties while retaining Cincinnati-area suburbs. Key dynamics sustaining the tight positioning include Landsman’s incumbency advantage and name recognition against Conroy’s profile as a former CIA officer, combined with the absence of decisive polling or major campaign events since the May primaries. Historical midterm patterns and the district’s recent voting behavior—where presidential results hovered near the national average—further support the balanced pricing. Limited public polling data leaves room for volatility, as small shifts in turnout among suburban or working-class voters could alter the final margin. Upcoming catalysts such as fall debates, candidate fundraising disclosures, or broader national political developments could widen separation by clarifying voter sentiment in this battleground. Resolution hinges on the certified November 3 general election results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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