**Democratic nominee Brian Poindexter holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-07 House race, with Republican incumbent Max Miller at 19.5%.** Recent August 2026 polls show Poindexter ahead by 8–14 points in a district with an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, where Trump carried the adjusted lines by roughly 11 points in 2024. Poindexter’s primary win as a union ironworker and local official, combined with backing from labor groups, has strengthened his position among working-class voters. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and others moved to toss-up after earlier leans toward Miller, reflecting the shift in polling averages and midterm dynamics favoring the challenging party. Miller retains a fundraising edge but trails in head-to-head surveys conducted in early-to-mid August. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with trader consensus pricing in the sustained Democratic lead observed in the latest data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-07 House Election Winner
OH-07 House Election Winner
$52,798 Vol.
$52,798 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
81%
Republican Party
20%
$52,798 Vol.
$52,798 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$33,341 Vol.
81%
Republican Party
$19,457 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Brian Poindexter holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-07 House race, with Republican incumbent Max Miller at 19.5%.**
Recent August 2026 polls show Poindexter ahead by 8–14 points in a district with an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, where Trump carried the adjusted lines by roughly 11 points in 2024. Poindexter’s primary win as a union ironworker and local official, combined with backing from labor groups, has strengthened his position among working-class voters. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and others moved to toss-up after earlier leans toward Miller, reflecting the shift in polling averages and midterm dynamics favoring the challenging party. Miller retains a fundraising edge but trails in head-to-head surveys conducted in early-to-mid August. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with trader consensus pricing in the sustained Democratic lead observed in the latest data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$52,798End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Brian Poindexter holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-07 House race, with Republican incumbent Max Miller at 19.5%.**
Recent August 2026 polls show Poindexter ahead by 8–14 points in a district with an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, where Trump carried the adjusted lines by roughly 11 points in 2024. Poindexter’s primary win as a union ironworker and local official, combined with backing from labor groups, has strengthened his position among working-class voters. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and others moved to toss-up after earlier leans toward Miller, reflecting the shift in polling averages and midterm dynamics favoring the challenging party. Miller retains a fundraising edge but trails in head-to-head surveys conducted in early-to-mid August. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with trader consensus pricing in the sustained Democratic lead observed in the latest data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,798End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee Brian Poindexter holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-07 House race, with Republican incumbent Max Miller at 19.5%.** Recent August 2026 polls show Poindexter ahead by 8–14 points in a district with an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, where Trump carried the adjusted lines by roughly 11 points in 2024. Poindexter’s primary win as a union ironworker and local official, combined with backing from labor groups, has strengthened his position among working-class voters. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and others moved to toss-up after earlier leans toward Miller, reflecting the shift in polling averages and midterm dynamics favoring the challenging party. Miller retains a fundraising edge but trails in head-to-head surveys conducted in early-to-mid August. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with trader consensus pricing in the sustained Democratic lead observed in the latest data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions