Oklahoma's open 2026 gubernatorial race features Republican nominee Mike Mazzei, who narrowly won the August 25 primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond, against Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 95.5% implied probability of victory due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with structural advantages such as voter registration edges and historical turnout patterns favoring GOP candidates. The race remains rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Potential shifts could stem from major late-cycle developments, including candidate-specific scandals, significant health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in a low-turnout environment, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable Oklahoma contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$27,110 Vol.
$27,110 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
95%
Democrat
5%
$27,110 Vol.
$27,110 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$12,172 Vol.
95%
Democrat
$14,938 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's open 2026 gubernatorial race features Republican nominee Mike Mazzei, who narrowly won the August 25 primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond, against Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 95.5% implied probability of victory due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with structural advantages such as voter registration edges and historical turnout patterns favoring GOP candidates. The race remains rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Potential shifts could stem from major late-cycle developments, including candidate-specific scandals, significant health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in a low-turnout environment, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable Oklahoma contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$27,110End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Oklahoma's open 2026 gubernatorial race features Republican nominee Mike Mazzei, who narrowly won the August 25 primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond, against Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 95.5% implied probability of victory due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with structural advantages such as voter registration edges and historical turnout patterns favoring GOP candidates. The race remains rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Potential shifts could stem from major late-cycle developments, including candidate-specific scandals, significant health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in a low-turnout environment, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable Oklahoma contests.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$27,110End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's open 2026 gubernatorial race features Republican nominee Mike Mazzei, who narrowly won the August 25 primary runoff against Attorney General Gentner Drummond, against Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 95.5% implied probability of victory due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including large margins in recent presidential and statewide contests, combined with structural advantages such as voter registration edges and historical turnout patterns favoring GOP candidates. The race remains rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Potential shifts could stem from major late-cycle developments, including candidate-specific scandals, significant health events, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in a low-turnout environment, though such factors have rarely altered outcomes in comparable Oklahoma contests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions