OpenAI’s September 8 release of a Lean-formalized proof, generated by roughly 10,000 coordinating AI agents running an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra, underpins the 93% market-implied probability against retraction by year-end. The public GitHub repository enables rapid independent verification of the finite-time singularity result for statements C and D in the Clay formulation, with no mathematical errors identified despite ongoing scrutiny focused on research conduct and priority disputes rather than proof validity. While peer review and Clay Institute evaluation could surface discrepancies before December 31, the combination of machine-checkable artifacts and absence of demonstrated flaws sustains strong trader consensus that a full retraction remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 release of a Lean-formalized proof, generated by roughly 10,000 coordinating AI agents running an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra, underpins the 93% market-implied probability against retraction by year-end. The public GitHub repository enables rapid independent verification of the finite-time singularity result for statements C and D in the Clay formulation, with no mathematical errors identified despite ongoing scrutiny focused on research conduct and priority disputes rather than proof validity. While peer review and Clay Institute evaluation could surface discrepancies before December 31, the combination of machine-checkable artifacts and absence of demonstrated flaws sustains strong trader consensus that a full retraction remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$112End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 release of a Lean-formalized proof, generated by roughly 10,000 coordinating AI agents running an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra, underpins the 93% market-implied probability against retraction by year-end. The public GitHub repository enables rapid independent verification of the finite-time singularity result for statements C and D in the Clay formulation, with no mathematical errors identified despite ongoing scrutiny focused on research conduct and priority disputes rather than proof validity. While peer review and Clay Institute evaluation could surface discrepancies before December 31, the combination of machine-checkable artifacts and absence of demonstrated flaws sustains strong trader consensus that a full retraction remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s September 8 release of a Lean-formalized proof, generated by roughly 10,000 coordinating AI agents running an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra, underpins the 93% market-implied probability against retraction by year-end. The public GitHub repository enables rapid independent verification of the finite-time singularity result for statements C and D in the Clay formulation, with no mathematical errors identified despite ongoing scrutiny focused on research conduct and priority disputes rather than proof validity. While peer review and Clay Institute evaluation could surface discrepancies before December 31, the combination of machine-checkable artifacts and absence of demonstrated flaws sustains strong trader consensus that a full retraction remains unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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