OpenAI's commanding 78.5% implied probability stems from sustained high token volumes on OpenRouter for flagship models like GPT-5.6 Luna, which continue to capture the largest share of developer routing amid broad ecosystem adoption and reliable performance across coding and general tasks. DeepSeek's 14.5% reflects its strong open-weight Flash variants and cost efficiency that have driven recent usage spikes, though still trailing in aggregate lab share for the week of September 7. Lower-probability outcomes for Tencent, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and others track their competitive weekly model rankings but limited overall market penetration, while Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain sidelined by narrower developer uptake. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's historical consistency against potential late-week surges from Chinese labs, with resolution hinging on final token-processed tallies through September 13.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 79%
DeepSeek 15%
Qwen <1%
xAI <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
OpenAI
79%
DeepSeek
15%
Qwen
1%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meta
<1%
OpenAI 79%
DeepSeek 15%
Qwen <1%
xAI <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
OpenAI
$1,877 Vol.
79%
DeepSeek
$841 Vol.
15%
Qwen
$277 Vol.
1%
xAI
$267 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,195 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$967 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$289 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$280 Vol.
<1%
$320 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$303 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$277 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$221 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.OpenAI's commanding 78.5% implied probability stems from sustained high token volumes on OpenRouter for flagship models like GPT-5.6 Luna, which continue to capture the largest share of developer routing amid broad ecosystem adoption and reliable performance across coding and general tasks. DeepSeek's 14.5% reflects its strong open-weight Flash variants and cost efficiency that have driven recent usage spikes, though still trailing in aggregate lab share for the week of September 7. Lower-probability outcomes for Tencent, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and others track their competitive weekly model rankings but limited overall market penetration, while Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain sidelined by narrower developer uptake. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's historical consistency against potential late-week surges from Chinese labs, with resolution hinging on final token-processed tallies through September 13.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,114End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.OpenAI's commanding 78.5% implied probability stems from sustained high token volumes on OpenRouter for flagship models like GPT-5.6 Luna, which continue to capture the largest share of developer routing amid broad ecosystem adoption and reliable performance across coding and general tasks. DeepSeek's 14.5% reflects its strong open-weight Flash variants and cost efficiency that have driven recent usage spikes, though still trailing in aggregate lab share for the week of September 7. Lower-probability outcomes for Tencent, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and others track their competitive weekly model rankings but limited overall market penetration, while Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain sidelined by narrower developer uptake. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's historical consistency against potential late-week surges from Chinese labs, with resolution hinging on final token-processed tallies through September 13.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used.
This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 once the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of September 14, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on September 18, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 7 to 13, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
Volume
$7,114End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://openrouter.ai/rankingsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's commanding 78.5% implied probability stems from sustained high token volumes on OpenRouter for flagship models like GPT-5.6 Luna, which continue to capture the largest share of developer routing amid broad ecosystem adoption and reliable performance across coding and general tasks. DeepSeek's 14.5% reflects its strong open-weight Flash variants and cost efficiency that have driven recent usage spikes, though still trailing in aggregate lab share for the week of September 7. Lower-probability outcomes for Tencent, Z.ai, Xiaomi, and others track their competitive weekly model rankings but limited overall market penetration, while Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain sidelined by narrower developer uptake. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's historical consistency against potential late-week surges from Chinese labs, with resolution hinging on final token-processed tallies through September 13.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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