MiniMax leads trader sentiment at 77% implied probability due to the strong performance of its July 2026 H3 omni-modal model and subsequent post-trained variants like H3 Max. The 33B-parameter open-weights system excels at image-to-video tasks through unified handling of text, image, video, and audio references, delivering native stereo audio, up to 2K resolution, and precise motion transfer in benchmarks. Recent Artificial Analysis arena results show H3 variants topping image-to-video leaderboards with Elo scores above 1,200, outpacing closed models from ByteDance, Google, and Kling on reference consistency and editing capabilities. Competitors such as Google’s Veo 3.1 or Luma AI trail on these specific metrics despite competitive text-to-video strengths, with no major releases shifting the consensus in the final weeks before end-September resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiniMax 80%
Google 13%
Luma AI 3.4%
Pixverse 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
80%
13%
Luma AI
3%
Pixverse
3%
Black Forest Labs
3%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
2%
Pruna
2%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
KlingAI
1%
Lightricks
1%
Shengshu
1%
Tencent
1%
Pika
1%
Runway
<1%
MiniMax 80%
Google 13%
Luma AI 3.4%
Pixverse 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
MiniMax
$3,754 Vol.
80%
$158 Vol.
13%
Luma AI
$132 Vol.
3%
Pixverse
$123 Vol.
3%
Black Forest Labs
$134 Vol.
3%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$139 Vol.
2%
Pruna
$139 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$347 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$176 Vol.
1%
KlingAI
$103 Vol.
1%
Lightricks
$129 Vol.
1%
Shengshu
$123 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$172 Vol.
1%
Pika
$138 Vol.
1%
Runway
$1,761 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax leads trader sentiment at 77% implied probability due to the strong performance of its July 2026 H3 omni-modal model and subsequent post-trained variants like H3 Max. The 33B-parameter open-weights system excels at image-to-video tasks through unified handling of text, image, video, and audio references, delivering native stereo audio, up to 2K resolution, and precise motion transfer in benchmarks. Recent Artificial Analysis arena results show H3 variants topping image-to-video leaderboards with Elo scores above 1,200, outpacing closed models from ByteDance, Google, and Kling on reference consistency and editing capabilities. Competitors such as Google’s Veo 3.1 or Luma AI trail on these specific metrics despite competitive text-to-video strengths, with no major releases shifting the consensus in the final weeks before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ET
Volume
$7,527End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".MiniMax leads trader sentiment at 77% implied probability due to the strong performance of its July 2026 H3 omni-modal model and subsequent post-trained variants like H3 Max. The 33B-parameter open-weights system excels at image-to-video tasks through unified handling of text, image, video, and audio references, delivering native stereo audio, up to 2K resolution, and precise motion transfer in benchmarks. Recent Artificial Analysis arena results show H3 variants topping image-to-video leaderboards with Elo scores above 1,200, outpacing closed models from ByteDance, Google, and Kling on reference consistency and editing capabilities. Competitors such as Google’s Veo 3.1 or Luma AI trail on these specific metrics despite competitive text-to-video strengths, with no major releases shifting the consensus in the final weeks before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Image-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Image-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Image-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/image-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models marked “Preliminary” at the applicable check time will be considered.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Image-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,527End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...MiniMax leads trader sentiment at 77% implied probability due to the strong performance of its July 2026 H3 omni-modal model and subsequent post-trained variants like H3 Max. The 33B-parameter open-weights system excels at image-to-video tasks through unified handling of text, image, video, and audio references, delivering native stereo audio, up to 2K resolution, and precise motion transfer in benchmarks. Recent Artificial Analysis arena results show H3 variants topping image-to-video leaderboards with Elo scores above 1,200, outpacing closed models from ByteDance, Google, and Kling on reference consistency and editing capabilities. Competitors such as Google’s Veo 3.1 or Luma AI trail on these specific metrics despite competitive text-to-video strengths, with no major releases shifting the consensus in the final weeks before end-September resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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