Google’s Veo 3.1 and related Omni models anchor the 77.5% implied probability through consistent leadership in human-preference benchmarks such as MovieGenBench overall preference and text alignment, plus native synchronized audio generation that most rivals still lack. Recent mid-2026 updates expanded creative controls, vertical output, 4K upscaling, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and YouTube tools, reinforcing production-ready consistency and prompt adherence. Competitors like MiniMax H3, Kling 3.0, and ByteDance Seedance post higher arena Elo scores in select blind-vote categories, yet trail on combined audio-visual quality and ecosystem reach. OpenAI’s Sora discontinuation by late September further narrows the field. Trader consensus therefore treats Google’s combination of demonstrated capabilities, accessibility, and recent refinements as the clearest path to “best” status by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 78%
ByteDance 7.7%
Runway 7.0%
Tencent 3.0%
$16,461 Vol.
$16,461 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
78%
ByteDance
8%
Runway
7%
Tencent
3%
Pruna
2%
KlingAI
2%
Lightricks
1%
Pixverse
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
Pika
<1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 78%
ByteDance 7.7%
Runway 7.0%
Tencent 3.0%
$16,461 Vol.
$16,461 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$11,670 Vol.
78%
ByteDance
$483 Vol.
8%
Runway
$338 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$251 Vol.
3%
Pruna
$300 Vol.
2%
KlingAI
$328 Vol.
2%
Lightricks
$323 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$237 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$309 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$237 Vol.
<1%
Pika
$369 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$246 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$354 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$309 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$251 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$270 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$186 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and related Omni models anchor the 77.5% implied probability through consistent leadership in human-preference benchmarks such as MovieGenBench overall preference and text alignment, plus native synchronized audio generation that most rivals still lack. Recent mid-2026 updates expanded creative controls, vertical output, 4K upscaling, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and YouTube tools, reinforcing production-ready consistency and prompt adherence. Competitors like MiniMax H3, Kling 3.0, and ByteDance Seedance post higher arena Elo scores in select blind-vote categories, yet trail on combined audio-visual quality and ecosystem reach. OpenAI’s Sora discontinuation by late September further narrows the field. Trader consensus therefore treats Google’s combination of demonstrated capabilities, accessibility, and recent refinements as the clearest path to “best” status by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$16,461End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and related Omni models anchor the 77.5% implied probability through consistent leadership in human-preference benchmarks such as MovieGenBench overall preference and text alignment, plus native synchronized audio generation that most rivals still lack. Recent mid-2026 updates expanded creative controls, vertical output, 4K upscaling, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and YouTube tools, reinforcing production-ready consistency and prompt adherence. Competitors like MiniMax H3, Kling 3.0, and ByteDance Seedance post higher arena Elo scores in select blind-vote categories, yet trail on combined audio-visual quality and ecosystem reach. OpenAI’s Sora discontinuation by late September further narrows the field. Trader consensus therefore treats Google’s combination of demonstrated capabilities, accessibility, and recent refinements as the clearest path to “best” status by month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$16,461End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s Veo 3.1 and related Omni models anchor the 77.5% implied probability through consistent leadership in human-preference benchmarks such as MovieGenBench overall preference and text alignment, plus native synchronized audio generation that most rivals still lack. Recent mid-2026 updates expanded creative controls, vertical output, 4K upscaling, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and YouTube tools, reinforcing production-ready consistency and prompt adherence. Competitors like MiniMax H3, Kling 3.0, and ByteDance Seedance post higher arena Elo scores in select blind-vote categories, yet trail on combined audio-visual quality and ecosystem reach. OpenAI’s Sora discontinuation by late September further narrows the field. Trader consensus therefore treats Google’s combination of demonstrated capabilities, accessibility, and recent refinements as the clearest path to “best” status by month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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