Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds an 88% implied probability in the PA-16 House race, reflecting the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent presidential voting. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails at roughly 10%. The general election on November 3, 2026, occurs in a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, with limited polling or fundraising data indicating any meaningful shift. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural partisan advantage and incumbency, though late-cycle national conditions or candidate-specific developments could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-16 House Election Winner
PA-16 House Election Winner
$32,920 Vol.
$32,920 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
$32,920 Vol.
$32,920 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,723 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$12,198 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds an 88% implied probability in the PA-16 House race, reflecting the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent presidential voting. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails at roughly 10%. The general election on November 3, 2026, occurs in a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, with limited polling or fundraising data indicating any meaningful shift. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural partisan advantage and incumbency, though late-cycle national conditions or candidate-specific developments could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,920End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds an 88% implied probability in the PA-16 House race, reflecting the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent presidential voting. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails at roughly 10%. The general election on November 3, 2026, occurs in a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, with limited polling or fundraising data indicating any meaningful shift. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural partisan advantage and incumbency, though late-cycle national conditions or candidate-specific developments could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,920End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Kelly holds an 88% implied probability in the PA-16 House race, reflecting the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent presidential voting. Kelly, first elected in 2011 and a senior member of the Ways and Means Committee, ran unopposed in the May 2026 Republican primary. Democrat Justin Wagner, a veteran and engineer who also faced no primary opposition, trails at roughly 10%. The general election on November 3, 2026, occurs in a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, with limited polling or fundraising data indicating any meaningful shift. Trader consensus aligns with the district’s structural partisan advantage and incumbency, though late-cycle national conditions or candidate-specific developments could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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