The tightly bunched probabilities around 50% for dozens of quarterbacks underscore the wide-open nature of Week 1 passing touchdown leadership, driven by extensive offseason roster turnover and uncertain early-season passing volumes. New or returning starters such as Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and Malik Willis face varied defensive schemes and potential run-heavy scripts or conservative play-calling in openers, while established passers like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Matthew Stafford encounter tough road or divisional matchups that limit big-play opportunities. Factors including offensive line health, receiver availability, weather, and game flow further flatten expectations, leaving no clear consensus leader in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJoshua Dobbs 98%
Stetson Bennett IV 98%
Mac Jones 98%
Drew Lock 98%
Joshua Dobbs
98%
Stetson Bennett IV
98%
Mac Jones
98%
Drew Lock
98%
Tyson Bagent
98%
Tyrod Taylor
98%
Michael Penix Jr.
98%
Kenny Pickett
98%
Spencer Rattler
98%
Gardner Minshew II
98%
Aaron Rodgers
50%
Trey Lance
50%
Caleb Williams
50%
Brock Purdy
50%
Sam Howell
50%
Jaxson Dart
50%
Kyle Allen
50%
Malik Willis
50%
Kyle McCord
50%
Drake Maye
50%
Tommy DeVito
50%
Geno Smith
50%
Cade Klubnik
50%
Lamar Jackson
50%
Tyler Huntley
50%
Joe Burrow
50%
Joe Flacco
50%
Deshaun Watson
50%
Shedeur Sanders
50%
C.J. Stroud
50%
Davis Mills
50%
Daniel Jones
50%
Anthony Richardson Sr.
50%
Josh Allen
50%
Mason Rudolph
50%
Trevor Lawrence
50%
Quinn Ewers
50%
Mitchell Trubisky
50%
Bo Nix
50%
Jarrett Stidham
50%
Dak Prescott
50%
Jalen Hurts
50%
Andy Dalton
50%
Jared Goff
50%
Sam Darnold
50%
Cam Ward
50%
Patrick Mahomes
50%
Justin Fields
50%
Kirk Cousins
50%
Fernando Mendoza
50%
Justin Herbert
50%
Jameis Winston
50%
Jayden Daniels
50%
Marcus Mariota
50%
Jordan Love
50%
Kyler Murray
50%
J.J. McCarthy
50%
Tua Tagovailoa
50%
Bryce Young
50%
Tyler Shough
50%
Baker Mayfield
50%
Jalon Daniels
50%
Jacoby Brissett
50%
Matthew Stafford
50%
Joshua Dobbs 98%
Stetson Bennett IV 98%
Mac Jones 98%
Drew Lock 98%
Joshua Dobbs
98%
Stetson Bennett IV
98%
Mac Jones
98%
Drew Lock
98%
Tyson Bagent
98%
Tyrod Taylor
98%
Michael Penix Jr.
98%
Kenny Pickett
98%
Spencer Rattler
98%
Gardner Minshew II
98%
Aaron Rodgers
50%
Trey Lance
50%
Caleb Williams
50%
Brock Purdy
50%
Sam Howell
50%
Jaxson Dart
50%
Kyle Allen
50%
Malik Willis
50%
Kyle McCord
50%
Drake Maye
50%
Tommy DeVito
50%
Geno Smith
50%
Cade Klubnik
50%
Lamar Jackson
50%
Tyler Huntley
50%
Joe Burrow
50%
Joe Flacco
50%
Deshaun Watson
50%
Shedeur Sanders
50%
C.J. Stroud
50%
Davis Mills
50%
Daniel Jones
50%
Anthony Richardson Sr.
50%
Josh Allen
50%
Mason Rudolph
50%
Trevor Lawrence
50%
Quinn Ewers
50%
Mitchell Trubisky
50%
Bo Nix
50%
Jarrett Stidham
50%
Dak Prescott
50%
Jalen Hurts
50%
Andy Dalton
50%
Jared Goff
50%
Sam Darnold
50%
Cam Ward
50%
Patrick Mahomes
50%
Justin Fields
50%
Kirk Cousins
50%
Fernando Mendoza
50%
Justin Herbert
50%
Jameis Winston
50%
Jayden Daniels
50%
Marcus Mariota
50%
Jordan Love
50%
Kyler Murray
50%
J.J. McCarthy
50%
Tua Tagovailoa
50%
Bryce Young
50%
Tyler Shough
50%
Baker Mayfield
50%
Jalon Daniels
50%
Jacoby Brissett
50%
Matthew Stafford
50%
Only games designated by the NFL as Week 1 of the 2026-27 regular season count.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened or truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games.
If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Only games designated by the NFL as Week 1 of the 2026-27 regular season count.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to "Other".
If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened or truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games.
If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly bunched probabilities around 50% for dozens of quarterbacks underscore the wide-open nature of Week 1 passing touchdown leadership, driven by extensive offseason roster turnover and uncertain early-season passing volumes. New or returning starters such as Drake Maye, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, and Malik Willis face varied defensive schemes and potential run-heavy scripts or conservative play-calling in openers, while established passers like Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Matthew Stafford encounter tough road or divisional matchups that limit big-play opportunities. Factors including offensive line health, receiver availability, weather, and game flow further flatten expectations, leaving no clear consensus leader in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions