**Recent polls place Die Linke near or slightly below the 12% threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (conducted August 24–25 for ARD) shows the party at 11% (down 2 points from late July), while earlier August polls from Pollytix and INSA recorded 13%. This narrow range around the cutoff, combined with the vote occurring in under two weeks, supports traders’ modest tilt toward “Under” at 56.5% implied probability. Die Linke’s result has remained stable near its 2021 level of 11.0% across most 2026 surveys, with no sustained upward momentum. The emergence of the BSW (polling 4–5%) has drawn some former left-leaning support, while the broader campaign has focused on AfD strength (42%) and CDU weakness (22%), leaving limited attention or momentum for Linke gains. Late-campaign volatility remains possible given that roughly 11% of voters in the latest poll said their preference could still shift, but current evidence points to an outcome clustered around or under the 12% line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
44% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
44% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polls place Die Linke near or slightly below the 12% threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (conducted August 24–25 for ARD) shows the party at 11% (down 2 points from late July), while earlier August polls from Pollytix and INSA recorded 13%. This narrow range around the cutoff, combined with the vote occurring in under two weeks, supports traders’ modest tilt toward “Under” at 56.5% implied probability.
Die Linke’s result has remained stable near its 2021 level of 11.0% across most 2026 surveys, with no sustained upward momentum. The emergence of the BSW (polling 4–5%) has drawn some former left-leaning support, while the broader campaign has focused on AfD strength (42%) and CDU weakness (22%), leaving limited attention or momentum for Linke gains. Late-campaign volatility remains possible given that roughly 11% of voters in the latest poll said their preference could still shift, but current evidence points to an outcome clustered around or under the 12% line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,968End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polls place Die Linke near or slightly below the 12% threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (conducted August 24–25 for ARD) shows the party at 11% (down 2 points from late July), while earlier August polls from Pollytix and INSA recorded 13%. This narrow range around the cutoff, combined with the vote occurring in under two weeks, supports traders’ modest tilt toward “Under” at 56.5% implied probability.
Die Linke’s result has remained stable near its 2021 level of 11.0% across most 2026 surveys, with no sustained upward momentum. The emergence of the BSW (polling 4–5%) has drawn some former left-leaning support, while the broader campaign has focused on AfD strength (42%) and CDU weakness (22%), leaving limited attention or momentum for Linke gains. Late-campaign volatility remains possible given that roughly 11% of voters in the latest poll said their preference could still shift, but current evidence points to an outcome clustered around or under the 12% line.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$6,968End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polls place Die Linke near or slightly below the 12% threshold ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (conducted August 24–25 for ARD) shows the party at 11% (down 2 points from late July), while earlier August polls from Pollytix and INSA recorded 13%. This narrow range around the cutoff, combined with the vote occurring in under two weeks, supports traders’ modest tilt toward “Under” at 56.5% implied probability. Die Linke’s result has remained stable near its 2021 level of 11.0% across most 2026 surveys, with no sustained upward momentum. The emergence of the BSW (polling 4–5%) has drawn some former left-leaning support, while the broader campaign has focused on AfD strength (42%) and CDU weakness (22%), leaving limited attention or momentum for Linke gains. Late-campaign volatility remains possible given that roughly 11% of voters in the latest poll said their preference could still shift, but current evidence points to an outcome clustered around or under the 12% line.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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