**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has already reached roughly $869 million as of late August, powering its lead in the 940-950 million range at 42.5% implied probability. Strong audience retention, positive critical reception for its character focus and action, and Tom Holland-Zendaya star power have driven legs consistent with major MCU entries, supporting continued earnings through early September before steeper drops. Recent fourth-weekend holds near $39 million underscore sustained momentum ahead of Labor Day and fall competition, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles limit upside beyond the mid-900s by the September 30 resolution. Traders appear to price the film’s proven front-loaded trajectory against its still-elevated per-screen averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
940 - 950m 43%
<940m 29%
950 - 960m 11%
970m+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
29%
940 - 950m
43%
950 - 960m
11%
960 - 970m
9%
970m+
6%
940 - 950m 43%
<940m 29%
950 - 960m 11%
970m+ 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<940m
$1,993 Vol.
29%
940 - 950m
$305 Vol.
43%
950 - 960m
$383 Vol.
11%
960 - 970m
$215 Vol.
9%
970m+
$176 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has already reached roughly $869 million as of late August, powering its lead in the 940-950 million range at 42.5% implied probability. Strong audience retention, positive critical reception for its character focus and action, and Tom Holland-Zendaya star power have driven legs consistent with major MCU entries, supporting continued earnings through early September before steeper drops. Recent fourth-weekend holds near $39 million underscore sustained momentum ahead of Labor Day and fall competition, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles limit upside beyond the mid-900s by the September 30 resolution. Traders appear to price the film’s proven front-loaded trajectory against its still-elevated per-screen averages.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$3,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has already reached roughly $869 million as of late August, powering its lead in the 940-950 million range at 42.5% implied probability. Strong audience retention, positive critical reception for its character focus and action, and Tom Holland-Zendaya star power have driven legs consistent with major MCU entries, supporting continued earnings through early September before steeper drops. Recent fourth-weekend holds near $39 million underscore sustained momentum ahead of Labor Day and fall competition, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles limit upside beyond the mid-900s by the September 30 resolution. Traders appear to price the film’s proven front-loaded trajectory against its still-elevated per-screen averages.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$3,072End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Spider-Man: Brand New Day** opened to a record $360 million domestic in late July and has already reached roughly $869 million as of late August, powering its lead in the 940-950 million range at 42.5% implied probability. Strong audience retention, positive critical reception for its character focus and action, and Tom Holland-Zendaya star power have driven legs consistent with major MCU entries, supporting continued earnings through early September before steeper drops. Recent fourth-weekend holds near $39 million underscore sustained momentum ahead of Labor Day and fall competition, though historical patterns for similar tentpoles limit upside beyond the mid-900s by the September 30 resolution. Traders appear to price the film’s proven front-loaded trajectory against its still-elevated per-screen averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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