Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads trader sentiment at 57.5% implied probability after delivering a record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, the biggest debut in box office history and ahead of Avengers: Endgame. Its massive presales, $72 million in Thursday previews, Tom Holland and Zendaya star power, and strong word-of-mouth drove the result and established an early benchmark no other 2026 release has matched. Avengers: Doomsday holds 41.5% on robust early presales exceeding $35 million four months out and tracking for a $260–300 million December 18 debut, though it shares screens with Dune: Messiah and contends with holiday competition. Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah remain at 0.1% each due to more modest openings or direct head-to-head pressure. Final December updates and holiday tracking will determine if Doomsday can close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 42%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$85,551 Vol.
$85,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
42%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Toy Story 5
<1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 57%
Avengers: Doomsday 42%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$85,551 Vol.
$85,551 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$20,250 Vol.
57%
Avengers: Doomsday
$32,365 Vol.
42%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,728 Vol.
<1%
Toy Story 5
$3,657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads trader sentiment at 57.5% implied probability after delivering a record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, the biggest debut in box office history and ahead of Avengers: Endgame. Its massive presales, $72 million in Thursday previews, Tom Holland and Zendaya star power, and strong word-of-mouth drove the result and established an early benchmark no other 2026 release has matched. Avengers: Doomsday holds 41.5% on robust early presales exceeding $35 million four months out and tracking for a $260–300 million December 18 debut, though it shares screens with Dune: Messiah and contends with holiday competition. Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah remain at 0.1% each due to more modest openings or direct head-to-head pressure. Final December updates and holiday tracking will determine if Doomsday can close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$85,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads trader sentiment at 57.5% implied probability after delivering a record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, the biggest debut in box office history and ahead of Avengers: Endgame. Its massive presales, $72 million in Thursday previews, Tom Holland and Zendaya star power, and strong word-of-mouth drove the result and established an early benchmark no other 2026 release has matched. Avengers: Doomsday holds 41.5% on robust early presales exceeding $35 million four months out and tracking for a $260–300 million December 18 debut, though it shares screens with Dune: Messiah and contends with holiday competition. Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah remain at 0.1% each due to more modest openings or direct head-to-head pressure. Final December updates and holiday tracking will determine if Doomsday can close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$85,551End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads trader sentiment at 57.5% implied probability after delivering a record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, the biggest debut in box office history and ahead of Avengers: Endgame. Its massive presales, $72 million in Thursday previews, Tom Holland and Zendaya star power, and strong word-of-mouth drove the result and established an early benchmark no other 2026 release has matched. Avengers: Doomsday holds 41.5% on robust early presales exceeding $35 million four months out and tracking for a $260–300 million December 18 debut, though it shares screens with Dune: Messiah and contends with holiday competition. Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah remain at 0.1% each due to more modest openings or direct head-to-head pressure. Final December updates and holiday tracking will determine if Doomsday can close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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