**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, which bar transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions.** As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed these conditions are unmet. Diplomatic momentum has built around the Trump-Erdogan relationship, with the president signaling willingness to resolve the issue after their July 2026 Ankara meeting and the U.S. ambassador publicly forecasting progress within months. Turkish officials have described ongoing technical work and claimed production-partner status, while exploring options such as transferring the S-400s to a third country (reportedly including stalled UAE talks) with Russian consent. Congressional opposition, concerns from Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of its indigenous KAAN fighter and F-16 engines add complexity. Any resolution would require verifiable S-400 removal or equivalent certification to lift sanctions and enable program reentry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
25%
$43,408 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, which bar transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions.**
As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed these conditions are unmet. Diplomatic momentum has built around the Trump-Erdogan relationship, with the president signaling willingness to resolve the issue after their July 2026 Ankara meeting and the U.S. ambassador publicly forecasting progress within months. Turkish officials have described ongoing technical work and claimed production-partner status, while exploring options such as transferring the S-400s to a third country (reportedly including stalled UAE talks) with Russian consent.
Congressional opposition, concerns from Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of its indigenous KAAN fighter and F-16 engines add complexity. Any resolution would require verifiable S-400 removal or equivalent certification to lift sanctions and enable program reentry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, which bar transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions.**
As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed these conditions are unmet. Diplomatic momentum has built around the Trump-Erdogan relationship, with the president signaling willingness to resolve the issue after their July 2026 Ankara meeting and the U.S. ambassador publicly forecasting progress within months. Turkish officials have described ongoing technical work and claimed production-partner status, while exploring options such as transferring the S-400s to a third country (reportedly including stalled UAE talks) with Russian consent.
Congressional opposition, concerns from Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of its indigenous KAAN fighter and F-16 engines add complexity. Any resolution would require verifiable S-400 removal or equivalent certification to lift sanctions and enable program reentry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and Section 1245 of the FY2020 NDAA, which bar transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions.** As of late August 2026, the State Department has confirmed these conditions are unmet. Diplomatic momentum has built around the Trump-Erdogan relationship, with the president signaling willingness to resolve the issue after their July 2026 Ankara meeting and the U.S. ambassador publicly forecasting progress within months. Turkish officials have described ongoing technical work and claimed production-partner status, while exploring options such as transferring the S-400s to a third country (reportedly including stalled UAE talks) with Russian consent. Congressional opposition, concerns from Israel and Greece, and Turkey’s parallel pursuit of its indigenous KAAN fighter and F-16 engines add complexity. Any resolution would require verifiable S-400 removal or equivalent certification to lift sanctions and enable program reentry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions