Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during his July 2026 meeting with President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara, prompting Turkish officials to describe positive congressional talks and a possible production-partner role. However, a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. Efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state have stalled, leaving the core obstacle unresolved as of late August 2026. Additional regional factors, including concerns from Greece and Israel, add layers to any certification process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$43,408 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2027
25%
$43,408 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
June 30, 2027
$11,448 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during his July 2026 meeting with President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara, prompting Turkish officials to describe positive congressional talks and a possible production-partner role. However, a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. Efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state have stalled, leaving the core obstacle unresolved as of late August 2026. Additional regional factors, including concerns from Greece and Israel, add layers to any certification process.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during his July 2026 meeting with President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara, prompting Turkish officials to describe positive congressional talks and a possible production-partner role. However, a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. Efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state have stalled, leaving the core obstacle unresolved as of late August 2026. Additional regional factors, including concerns from Greece and Israel, add layers to any certification process.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$43,408End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by statutory requirements under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions and restoring access during his July 2026 meeting with President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara, prompting Turkish officials to describe positive congressional talks and a possible production-partner role. However, a July 22 State Department letter to Congress confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. Efforts to transfer the S-400 batteries to a Gulf state have stalled, leaving the core obstacle unresolved as of late August 2026. Additional regional factors, including concerns from Greece and Israel, add layers to any certification process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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