**US military action against Cuba by December 31, 2026, trades at moderate-to-low implied probabilities amid sustained but non-kinetic US pressure.** The Trump administration’s post-Venezuela strategy—fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on GAESA-linked entities, redesignation as a state sponsor of terrorism, and naval deployments including the USS Nimitz—has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, producing repeated blackouts and humanitarian strain. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s August 2026 statement that “all options are on the table, to include military options” and earlier Pentagon planning reviews keep the possibility live, yet recent reporting indicates momentum has shifted toward sanctions and diplomatic isolation as competing demands (Iran) and midterm timing constrain escalation. Cuban leadership has rejected negotiations under duress while pursuing limited private-sector reforms that US officials have dismissed. Traders price the risk of a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil accordingly, reflecting the gap between rhetorical and planning signals and the absence of an imminent triggering event within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS military action against Cuba by...?
US military action against Cuba by...?
$7,341,498 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
17%
$7,341,498 Vol.
December 31
$5,162,393 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba by December 31, 2026, trades at moderate-to-low implied probabilities amid sustained but non-kinetic US pressure.** The Trump administration’s post-Venezuela strategy—fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on GAESA-linked entities, redesignation as a state sponsor of terrorism, and naval deployments including the USS Nimitz—has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, producing repeated blackouts and humanitarian strain. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s August 2026 statement that “all options are on the table, to include military options” and earlier Pentagon planning reviews keep the possibility live, yet recent reporting indicates momentum has shifted toward sanctions and diplomatic isolation as competing demands (Iran) and midterm timing constrain escalation. Cuban leadership has rejected negotiations under duress while pursuing limited private-sector reforms that US officials have dismissed. Traders price the risk of a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil accordingly, reflecting the gap between rhetorical and planning signals and the absence of an imminent triggering event within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$7,341,498End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US military action against Cuba by December 31, 2026, trades at moderate-to-low implied probabilities amid sustained but non-kinetic US pressure.** The Trump administration’s post-Venezuela strategy—fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on GAESA-linked entities, redesignation as a state sponsor of terrorism, and naval deployments including the USS Nimitz—has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, producing repeated blackouts and humanitarian strain. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s August 2026 statement that “all options are on the table, to include military options” and earlier Pentagon planning reviews keep the possibility live, yet recent reporting indicates momentum has shifted toward sanctions and diplomatic isolation as competing demands (Iran) and midterm timing constrain escalation. Cuban leadership has rejected negotiations under duress while pursuing limited private-sector reforms that US officials have dismissed. Traders price the risk of a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil accordingly, reflecting the gap between rhetorical and planning signals and the absence of an imminent triggering event within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$7,341,498End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military action against Cuba by December 31, 2026, trades at moderate-to-low implied probabilities amid sustained but non-kinetic US pressure.** The Trump administration’s post-Venezuela strategy—fuel blockade via executive order, expanded sanctions on GAESA-linked entities, redesignation as a state sponsor of terrorism, and naval deployments including the USS Nimitz—has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis, producing repeated blackouts and humanitarian strain. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s August 2026 statement that “all options are on the table, to include military options” and earlier Pentagon planning reviews keep the possibility live, yet recent reporting indicates momentum has shifted toward sanctions and diplomatic isolation as competing demands (Iran) and midterm timing constrain escalation. Cuban leadership has rejected negotiations under duress while pursuing limited private-sector reforms that US officials have dismissed. Traders price the risk of a drone, missile, or air strike on Cuban soil accordingly, reflecting the gap between rhetorical and planning signals and the absence of an imminent triggering event within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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